Britain has been doing rather well these past few years. The Treasury s rosy economic forecasts have beaten the City gloom-merchants hands down, at least until the present slowdown. Japanese car makers, who threatened to quit the country unless we joined the euro, have stayed put. The square mile carries on doing business. Traders aren t bothered that sterling still exists. The exodus to Frankfurt which some expected hasn t happened. Unemployment, inflation and interest rates are at their lowest for a generation.
We all know the mantra from those little pledge cards at the last election. But cast an eye over to Europe. The set-up at the European Central Bank is all wrong the asymmetrical inflation target, the flawed stability pact, Wim Duisenberg all over the place. Brussels commissioners are so unaccountable they don t even bother putting up a good argument when they come forward with unacceptable demands. So why swap strength for uncertainty by joining the euro? If it ain t broke, don t fix it.
The Tories can t put it like that. Nor can Tony Blair and his allies. But that is the argument spelled out to me by a minister close to Gordon Brown as we look forward to the Chancellor s big decision next year. To an extent, the minister is playing devil s advocate. Isn t this how the press will see it? Is this not the strongest argument we would have to overcome if we set out to win a Yes vote in a referendum? But the Chancellor, his friends confirm, is genuinely not too concerned whether we go in or stay out.
Tony Blair made clear in his conference speech that the Treasury s five economic tests will decide when, not if, Britain joins. The euro is our destiny. And yet the Brownites Eurosceptic arguments may still hold true in one year, five years, ten years. All this adds an element of unpredictability to the Chancellor s crucial decision next year on whether the five tests have been passed. The verdict stay out, or call a vote will be the key to the success and longevity of this Labour government.
The date of the announcement alone will be the biggest talking point at Westminster for months on end. And Gordon hates being tied down to dates. Even the timing of his budgets is left floating until a few weeks in advance. With Treasury officials crunching the numbers and piecing together the reports that will justify the decision, whichever way it goes, there is no point in providing a hostage to fortune by setting a date when their work will finish.
A decision has been promised by June. And time is closing in. The Brownites see that Tony Blair wants his place in history as the PM who took Britain into the euro. They have watched the building-up and knocking-down of Blairite pretenders David Blunkett, Charles Clarke as rivals for the leadership succession. They know a referendum defeat could propel the Chancellor into Number 10. Soon it will be decision time.
Tories handbag Auntie
A stint at Central Office may not be quite the adornment to a CV that it once was but the BBC s political unit at Millbank still employs a room full of former Tory staffers to gather intelligence about the state of the opposition. Many are Portillistas, wary of IDS at the best of times. But they are watching with nervousness and fascination the ongoing development of Tory policy on the BBC.
Today s Tories think the BBC is dumbed-down, biased and an anachronism. They complain that its journalists think the same of them. At the Tory conference, one of the biggest ovations went to a representative who declared simply: The BBC seems to have forgotten it is a public service broadcaster . Their culture spokesman, John Whittingdale, has been egged on by the rightwing press into seeing the prospect of a widespread refusal to pay what many people see as a poll tax . (He means the licence fee.) No policy in place yet to scrap the corporation in its current form but there is still time before the next election.