Seldom have expectations been played down so far, and so far in advance. Back in December, the Tories told the Westminster press corps via ‘leaked’ briefing papers that they would do well to gain a net 30 seats in the May council elections. With Labour defending 3,400 seats – many of which were last contested in 1999 when Tony Blair was still enjoying a honeymoon with voters – such a result would be pitiful for the opposition. Even Tory MPs who are moderately supportive of Iain Duncan Smith – which is as good as it gets for the Tory leader these days – tell me they want to see at least 100 seats gained before he can consider himself safe from an early challenge.
Yet the Tory story may fade into the background when the votes are counted. The 2003 poll for English town halls, the Scottish parliament and the Welsh assembly could turn into a famous protest vote, like that at the 1989 Euro elections, when one in six voters switched to the Greens. We’ve had the million-strong protest march and the 122-MP rebellion. This is shaping up as part three: this Labour government’s worst ballot-box drubbing and Charles Kennedy’s finest hour.
Make no mistake. The Liberal Democrats are abuzz. A senior party strategist grins that they’ve never had it so good. He points to two pieces of evidence that tell him they’re poised for a breakthrough.
First, obviously, the opinion polls. Two months away from 1 May, Labour was sliding below 40 percent while the Lib Dems were climbing above twenty, both converging towards the Tories, stuck near 30 percent, as they have been for a decade.
A YouGov poll explained the trend. It asked Labour defectors what they didn’t like about the government. Broadly, they thought it was wrong on Iraq and had failed to improve public services. A fair few said it was too ‘Thatcherite’. So Labour is losing voters to the left, not the right, and where else can they go but the Lib Dems?
Second, the strategist tells me of a straw in the wind. In Labour terms it was the ‘Haverstock Horror’. A Labour-held seat fell to the Lib Dems in a council by-election. Nothing unusual about that. But this ward, Haverstock in Camden, epitomised Labour’s inner-city strongholds: mostly council tenants, with a smattering of well-off urban professionals. It fell with a hefty swing of around twenty percent.
There were no redeeming features. Labour-run Camden council is seen as moderate and well-run. And the local Lib Dems are weak and disorganised. The winning candidate admitted that anti-war feeling had helped to propel her to victory – even though the local Labour MP, Frank Dobson, is an anti-war rebel.
The 1989 Euro elections made the Green party look, briefly, like a significant force in politics. The press backlash was immediate. The Sun appointed a ‘Mr Green’ to dig the dirt on the environmentalists. If the Lib Dems triumph on 1 May, expect a spotlight to be turned on Charles Kennedy and his troops.
In the run-up to February’s historic revolt, when 122 MPs defied Tony Blair on Iraq, we heard a lot from rebels who wanted a Commons vote so that their voices could be heard. We heard less from the other bunch of rebels – the ones who didn’t want a vote. Many on the loyal left were quietly hoping that the government would use a sleight of hand to deny MPs the chance to protest. Democracy won the day and the reluctant rebels, in larger numbers than expected, were forced to blot their copybooks with the whips.
Modernisers at Westminster have been dealt another blow. First Lords reform was shelved. Then Michael Portillo committed political hari-kiri. Now my own modest attempt at change has been defeated by the Forces of Conservatism. Recently, a Labour MP who I took to the political journalists’ monthly lunch was perturbed to be asked to stand and toast the Queen. A Lib Dem MP across the table felt equally uncomfortable. They went along with it, of course, mumbling the words and declining to sip. But later I suggested that the tradition be scrapped. I presumed most colleagues would agree. Maybe they do. But scribes on the press gallery committee (on which I sit) voted by the narrowest of margins to keep the Loyal Toast. Things move slowly around here.