One of the most enduring images of the 1997 election was of Tony Blair surrounded by freshly elected female MPs. It seemed there was much to celebrate. More women MPs were in the Commons than ever before, and they were there because women had voted for them. A love affair had begun.
And yet MORI polling data published by the Fawcett Society last month shows that the relationship between Labour and women has gone sour. Women voters are disillusioned and dissatisfied: not the ideal mix for a happy marriage.
But then, Labour and women have never really created a happy home. If elections had been determined by men’s votes alone, we would have had a more or less continuous Labour government since 1945.
Traditionally the Conservatives were better at wooing women and older women were the most pro-Tory of all. Labour learnt this lesson the hard way in 1992. While Labour won over men’s support, women stayed with the Conservatives and kept John Major in power.
Labour responded by putting in place a concerted strategy to win over the hearts of women voters, and it worked.
In 1997, Labour made even greater gains among women than among men. But ever since, women’s support has been ebbing away. While this might seem to offer cheer to Michael Howard, Labour’s loss is not necessarily the Conservatives’ gain. In fact, the Liberal Democrats are only political party to have successfully won over the female voter. Anxious policy wonks from all the political parties would do well to read the report with care. It sets out three rules of attraction that any political party needs to follow if it is to win the female vote.
The first rule is you need to work hard to ensure that women take any interest in you at all. Women are sceptical about the male-dominated world of Westminster politics. They need to be convinced that politicians make any difference to their daily lives. And women’s natural scepticism has particular consequences for the Labour party as the party of government. The polling shows that women are more negative than men about Tony Blair, more pessimistic about the economy and less convinced that the government can deliver public services.
The second rule is figure out what women want and make sure they get it. Our polling showed particularly high levels of dissatisfaction among women about public services. Women have far more contact with public services as workers, mothers and carers, as well as recipients of a whole range of government programmes. As a result, they are probably best placed to judge whether government is having an impact at the front line. Women voters prioritise health over all other issues. Yet, a full two-fifths of women think that the NHS is set to get worse, not better, over time.
The third rule is you need to work hard to understand women. Too often, pollsters and analysts look at headline figures only and do no more than compare all women and all men. But, women are 52 percent of the population and it is not surprising to find that there is as much variation among women as there is difference between women and men.
A woman’s age, for example, has a bigger impact on her political allegiances than it does on a man. Take the case of young women: 53 percent of women under 24 voted Labour in 1997, making them more pro-Labour than young men and in fact the most pro-Labour of any age group of women or men.
Yet this is a very tricky group for Labour. Many of these strong supporters are so disillusioned that they simply will not vote at the next election.
In 2001, nearly two-thirds of women under 24 didn’t turn up at the polls. And the problem has got much worse, with only a fraction of these women now saying they are certain to vote. Iraq has doubtless played a big part in this loss of trust in politics as defence and foreign affairs top the priority list for this group.
At the other end of the age spectrum, the story is quite different. Overlooked by so much of the media and mainstream politics alike, the party that manages to court older women will collect one of the biggest political prizes. Older women are reliable voters and they are increasing in number. In fact, they make up about one-fifth of the entire electorate. And here Labour has a serious problem. Of all groups of women, this is the one that has fallen most out of love with Tony Blair. A whopping 64 percent say they are unhappy with the prime minster’s performance.
But, while this group has long been thought of as natural Conservative supporters, it is the Liberal Democrats that are the only party to have made clear gains with the grey female vote since 1997.
If the pundits are right, we have twelve months before the next general election. This gives each of the parties a year to rekindle the love affair. In a state of pre-election anxiety, the parties are wondering whether it is just a question of communicating policies better to women or whether they to change their political agendas.
The answer is, you must do both.
Women are not easily hoodwinked. Putting a token woman on your campaign platform, if they are almost entirely absent from the rest of your party’s machinery, is not going to fool anybody, least of all those women who are already sceptical about the political process. The traditional style of debate, especially around election time, is off-putting to many women who are more concerned with improving health and schooling than with political grandstanding.
The substance of politics also matters enormously. The label ‘women’s issues’ has never been helpful but it remains the case that women’s lives are different from men’s in many respects. So while childcare is an issue that should concern women and men equally, the availability of an affordable, local nursery is more likely to have a direct impact on a woman’s life than a man’s.
Labour has done a lot to bring such issues into the mainstream. Gordon Brown even mentioned domestic violence in his last budget statement, a subject that had previously been taboo in the House of Commons. The good news for Labour is that this strategy is paying off with some groups – professional women, for example, are more likely to vote Labour now than they were in 1997.
It may be no coincidence that the love affair between Labour and women is on the rocks now, seven years after Blair took up office.
As all self-help guides tell you, getting over the seven-year itch is a critical test of any relationship. It could go either way. This could simply be a bumpy patch after which the relationship emerges stronger than ever or it could be the first sign of the end of the affair. Relationships need hard work and passion in equal measure, and this is what Labour will need to put in if it is to convince the female electorate to back it at the next election.