With a general election imminent, political analysts are starting to shift into top gear predicting, prophesising and pondering the way the British electorate will vote. Predicting the course of elections has never been a scientific process. However, there always seems to be a constituency that sufficiently reflects the demographics of the country to set the debate for the election and define the battle ahead for the two main parties. In 1997 this constituency was Basildon; in 2001 Worcester filled the role. The next constituency to act as Britain’s political barometer may well be Gloucester.
Gloucester has an ethnically diverse population of about 110,000, ranging from Ukrainian Catholic to Irish to Muslim. There is also a broad range of incomes among the city’s inhabitants, with relatively poor districts such as Barton and Tredworth neighbouring the more prosperous areas of Robinswood and Quedgeley. With these demographics, it is hardly surprising that Gloucester has always been a marginal constituency. It swung most recently to Labour in 1997 and has remained so: Labour’s majority is 3,880. The next election, however, may prove a litmus test for Labour nationally, with the Tories needing only a 4.1 percent swing to regain the seat they held before 1997.
Gloucester’s MP, Parmjit Dhanda, is well aware of the situation. ‘The different social classes and also the ethnic makeup is pretty bang on the national demographic and it’s a good barometer for what’s happening nationally,’ he says. And if Gloucester does turn out to be the electoral gauge next spring then the opinions of its voters make interesting reading.
Gloucester resident Imran Atcha believes the Iraq war will influence how he votes and how others in Gloucester cast theirs, too. ‘I think there is a possibility that people may not vote Labour – not through Parmjit’s fault but because of the Labour party leadership.’ However, while mentioning Iraq, Imran is at pains to highlight the improvements Parmjit and the Labour party have brought about for Gloucester’s diverse community. ‘Through campaigning or helping individuals both Parmjit and his office have made a difference in Gloucester,’ he says. This acknowledgement of local improvements is echoed by Gena Ricketts of the West Gloucester Primary Care Trust. ‘There’s been a lot more concentration and investment in promoting multiculturalism in Gloucester,’ she says. ‘We’ve also noticed an improvement in the number of people coming out of long-term benefits and back into the workplace.’
This underlying theme of local improvement is borne out by public investment figures in Gloucester. The local hospital has had £34 million ploughed into it; £19 million has been used to reopen Gloucester University – it had been closed by the Tories – and £38 million has also given the city a new further education college. A new police HQ, a massive road by-pass project and a drop in unemployment by almost three quarters further highlight why Gloucester voters cite local issues as being high on their agenda when voting next year.
However, as with the rest of the country, this investment on its own will not secure Labour votes in 2005. Dhanda believes that when the next election does come, the future of public services will still be a primary issue in the minds of people as they approach the ballot box. Pensions also figure highly in Gloucester, mirroring a countrywide concern. Councillor Carole Francis repeats this view and believes Labour needs to rethink its approach to pensions in time for the election.
Dhanda thinks unemployment will not, at least in Gloucester, play a major part in people’s decisions. This may be due to Gloucester’s comparatively low level of unemployment – around two percent – but recent labour market statistics suggest this view will also prevail countrywide, as Britain’s unemployment figure overall is only running at 4.7 percent.
Opinions in Gloucester are varied. Some see specific issues such as health, tax credits, pensions or Iraq as being the central issue on which they will make their decision at the next election. But without exception people in Gloucester qualify their answers by acknowledging the improvements Labour – and more specifically their MP – has made locally. For a party-political fortune-teller, this makes Gloucester a problematic crystal ball. Do voters across the country harbour an acceptance that Labour has made a positive difference to their local communities or is this simply the unrepresentative effect of a good MP? Iraq has certainly dented the Labour vote, but if the evidence of Gloucester is anything to go by, local issues – from renovated hospitals to better community relations – will figure more prominently when people decide whether Labour deserves another term.