This spring was the pro-European Dunkirk. Tony Blair, who once spoke of the euro in terms of Britain’s ‘destiny’, was forced to concede a referendum on the draft constitution, while the euro election and the rise of UKIP’s ‘just say no’ populism has put EU withdrawal back on the British political agenda.
Perhaps pro-Europeans should be careful what they wish for. Many have spoken of the need to win a once-in-a-generation public debate on Europe. The constitution referendum was a low political gambit, designed to remove a difficult issue from the general election script.
Yet pro-Europeans should now use it to exorcise the ghosts of a decade in which an increasingly virulent Euroscepticsm has set the mood music for Britain’s public debate about Europe.
The question ‘What is Europe for?’ needs a compelling new ‘next generation’ case capable of turning public opinion around. Putting together the strategy, messages and coalition to achieve this will take time. But the direction of travel to make a new case about Britain’s place in Europe and Europe’s role in the world is becoming clearer.
1. Stop fighting the last war
Too much thinking among pro-Europeans focuses on how to emulate the victory – and large No to Yes swing – of 1975. But we don’t live in the Britain of 1975: an era dominated by debate about British decline. This is a much less deferential country – likely to stick two fingers up if presented with a grand coalition of the ‘great and good’ – and a much more confident country, too. Pro-European veterans need to leave the 1975 stump speeches and talk of ‘trains leaving stations’ behind.
2. A noisy new coalition for Europe
A new winning coalition would have little in common with the narrow, centrist elite Yes coalition of 1975. Healey, Jenkins and Heath agreed on most things. We now need a disorderly, broad, noisy coalition of people who disagree about almost everything but who all agree that Europe is the playing field for the debate. The last thing a winning coalition for Europe could be is an on-message, New Labour project. We need George Monbiot and the boardroom suits, anti-Iraq war protestors and liberal hawks. Yet putting such a coalition together would be unprecedented. We risk going backwards as a new generation of trade union leaders – suspicious of a government that seems to see ‘business Europe’ and ‘social Europe’ as alternatives – cool towards Europe.
3. Don’t fight on the constitution
The constitutional debate has completed a decade of EU navel-gazing. Those who hoped the EU would have a ‘Philadelphia moment’, or even simply produce a pocket-sized guide to what makes it tick, have been disappointed. The complex constitution will doubtless be the subject of arcane debate and endless myth-making. This is not the ground on which to fight. As in any political campaign, the pro-camp needs to run on a manifesto. We need to focus on the future of the EU over the next five years– what we need the constitution to achieve – to tell a story about Britain’s potential for influence in the new Europe of 25 and how we can shift the agenda onto issues from jobs to the environment where the EU does affect people’s everyday lives.
4. Make the political case – not just the economy, stupid
Both Yes and No campaigns turn off undecided voters with their custard pie approach to the economic debate, where EU engagement or withdrawal, according to taste, is the road to economic damnation. The pro camp must make an important case of economic interest. But why not do so credibly? We should not say that the sky would fall in even if we got out. Not all of the British jobs linked to trade with EU members would disappear – though inward investment would decline and our exporters would still have to obey rules we would do nothing to shape.Politicians are rarely wise to tell voters they have no choice. Rather we should admit that there are alternative futures for Britain – and sell European engagement as a more attractive option, combining the economics with a political case. Britain could seek to become a Greater Norway or Switzerland. But does that chime with our sense of ourselves and our place in the world? Is that the country that we want to be?
5. Don’t just hope it will all go away
‘Cheer up, it may never happen’. That’s why the British stayed out at the start. Remember John Major’s confident prediction that euro preparations ‘had all of the potency of a rain dance’? Yet many ministers seem to be relying on joining a long referendum queue behind the Dutch, the Poles and the French in the hope that we never have to put the question here. Failing to be ready to win the British debate is a dangerous game. This is the issue that will do most to define what it means to be on the left in Britain in ten years time. If Britain becomes permanently semi-detached in Europe, the prospects for progressive politics will become much thinner.