Is it really only ten years since you stood up at the Labour party conference, the fresh-faced new leader of a party you’d taken to calling New Labour? You offered hope, inspiration and the promise of radical reform. Reform was to start at home with the junking of the outdated Clause IV. A reformed party would then go on to reform the country: New Labour, New Britain.
As you prepare to stand up at this year’s conference in Brighton, the party and the country have a right to ask what came of all that promise. And you have the right to give a confident and forceful response. Indeed you have a duty to. If you plan to go to the people next year and ask them for a third term, you can be sure of one thing. They aren’t going to take anything on trust any more. And why should they?
In 1997, the country was sick of the Tories and was ready to believe in you and in New Labour. In 2001, the people felt the Conservative party hadn’t changed and that you deserved the time to show that your reforms would work. In 2005 they’re going to take a lot more persuading of the case for re-electing you.
The Tories under Michael Howard have done you a big favour. By relying on short-term opportunism rather than any serious analysis of why they failed in the past, the Conservatives are stalled politically. They refuse to change, believing the electorate will eventually wake up and realise it was wrong ever to reject them. They remind the country daily of the breathtaking arrogance that led to their defeat in 1997.
They’ve lost the argument on the public services but they can’t bring themselves to accept that and move on. Labour investment versus Tory cuts is still a powerful dividing line. You should use it for all it’s worth.
You know better than anyone where an opposition party needs to be a year away from an election if it’s going to stand any chance of winning. You helped put Labour in that position in 1996. It’s a very long way from where Michael Howard is now.
Yes, the Liberal Democrats have shown they can take some of your safest seats in by-elections and, yes, you have to look urgently at the reasons why and do something about them. But even Charles Kennedy doesn’t claim that means he’s about to move into Downing Street.
A divided opposition helped the Tories stay in power for eighteen years and it’s been an enormous benefit to New Labour since 1997. But I don’t believe you want to win a historic third term simply because the voters think you’re the least worst option. A radical third term requires a genuine and positive mandate from the electorate.
The loss of Brent East and Leicester South were heavy blows. That the Tories’ failure was even greater than Labour’s is little consolation. Losing Hartlepool would be a disaster. Some of your advisers will tell you that persuading the party’s traditional supporters to come out and vote is now the biggest priority. Don’t listen to them.
What you told your party ten years ago is still true today. The people of Hull vote for the same reasons as the people of Hove. They want a health service they can rely on, an education system that won’t let their children down and streets that are safe to walk along at any time of the day or night. They put you there – twice – to provide all that and they’ve accepted the tax rises you said were necessary to pay for it. Now, if it’s all the same to you, they’d like to get what you promised them.
With luck, over the next few months you’ll be able to talk a little less about Iraq and international terrorism, although you shouldn’t stop altogether, and a little more about the issues most people will vote on. Fortunately, you have a good story to tell. Tell it straight. New Labour spin doesn’t work any more.
There really are more doctors and nurses, school results are improving steadily, and crime – apart from the curse of alcohol-related violence – is falling. This is genuine delivery. You’re running out of time to persuade the voters of that, but then you can’t afford to rely on persuasion. They have to see it for themselves.
Let’s face it. People don’t trust you like they used to. A lot of them don’t even like you all that much any more. Many have deeply held grievances about what you’ve done. You have to acknowledge their right to feel like that. It might be an idea to tell them you’ll probably do more things they don’t like, too, but that you’ll always do what you believe is right for Britain. Nobody calls you Phoney Tony any more. They call you a lot worse, but at least they know that you stick to your principles.
Your old friend Bill Clinton was right when he said elections are about the future, not the past. The electorate has every right to bank those extra nurses and teachers and ask, now what? Don’t ask for gratitude because nobody is in any mood to give you much. Make an offer for the future.
That offer needs to be bold and, above all, credible. It should be rooted in your values. It needs to address the many inequalities that remain in British society, not least those faced by women in the workplace. The battle against child poverty and pensioner poverty is far from over. Our public transport system is still woefully inadequate. Without further reform the advances made in health and education will quickly go into reverse.
These are all huge challenges but they are the right territory on which to fight the election. How do we know? Because the Tories will do all they can to move the debate elsewhere, where they feel more comfortable.
If you get it right, disillusioned traditional voters will look at you afresh and those who turned to Labour for the first time in 1997 will know you haven’t lost sight of why they put their trust in you.
Try a bit of humility, too. It always works, especially when it’s genuine. Say that you know you’ve made mistakes, that government has turned out to be a lot tougher than you thought, but that you understand what still desperately needs to be done. And then ask them to decide for themselves whether you or Michael Howard has the best answers to the country’s problems.
After the battering you’ve received, you need to take a deep breath and look positively towards the future. Your biggest challenge is to fight on your agenda, the New Labour agenda. Not that of the Tories, or the media, or those in your own party who never accepted your kind of politics in the first place. That’s not a recipe for complacency: it’s the recognition that renewal and reform are constantly needed but that principles stay the same.
Then, with the campaign under way, you should raise your sights. In 1997, you offered hope, inspiration and radical reform. You’d do a lot worse than to offer a bit more of all three in 2005.