Amid the swirling fog of recent political events – the European elections, the three by-elections, the local and London elections, and countless opinion polls – one result stands out: the Tories are in trouble.
When Michael Howard conducted his palace coup, the Tories believed that after two colossal election defeats and three leaders their troubles were behind them. Howard has gone from shining saviour to lame duck in under a year. Iain Duncan Smith was criticised by his own party for two main failings – his inability to move public opinion towards the Tories, and his weak parliamentary performances against Tony Blair.
Now, in late summer 2004, Howard is criticised for two main failings: failure to shift public opinion, and weakness against Blair in parliament. His lawyerly circumlocutions in the chamber are becoming boring. A new leader has not led to new success for the Tories. Even Howard himself has admitted his own failings.
Their recent by-election failures, after throwing the kitchen sink at Hodge Hill and Leicester South, must have Tory strategists chewing their fingernails. Their post-election spin was all about how Tories don’t win in places like Leicester and Birmingham. Really? If that’s true, then the Tories are making an astonishing admission of their failure to connect with the British people.
The main problem for the Tories is that they believe they keep losing elections because of their leader. Fourteen years ago, they committed regicide on Margaret Thatcher when they thought she would lose them an election. With John Major, they enjoyed a brief respite and a win in 1992. Since then they’ve been behind in the polls for most of the decade.
The fact senior Tories can’t grasp is that it’s not their leaders that are the problem, but their record and their policies. People have long memories. They remember the poll tax, three million unemployed, mortgage misery, and boom and bust economics. They look at today’s Tories and see that nothing fundamental has changed. A Tory future would be much the same as the Tory past: government for the few, not the many. So while the Tories ratchet up their dark mutterings about Michael Howard, their policy menu is more of the same: anti-Europe, stir up fear over immigration, cut public services. They have ceded the centre ground to Labour, and struck their standard on the far right of the political spectrum.
The Liberal Democrats have proved that in their contemporary incarnation they are every bit as capable of pulling off by-election shocks against the governing party as the SDP or Liberals before them. But they have trimmed their sails in recent months. Paddy Ashdown thought he might make it into the cabinet; Kennedy used to talk about becoming the official opposition; now the best they seem to aspire to is ‘three party politics.’ Their lack of an ideological anchor or a consistent national policy platform, or a record in government since the First World War make it easier for Lib Dem candidates to be all things to all people. Fighting Lib Dems is like nailing jelly to a wall. But learn to nail them we must.
We will have to learn a new style of political campaigning – matching their cunning use of local issues, their relentless campaigning methods, and their ability to ruthlessly concentrate resources and activists. Where there is a Lib Dem record to expose, we should be able to relate the true story. Where Lib Dems have held power in local government, their failings have been plain to see. Our job is to remind people of the truth about the Lib Dems.
So what should Labour’s attitude be for the coming months? Our performances in the by-elections, including our narrow victory in Birmingham, give us a clear lesson. People were expressing their serious concerns, and we must listen. We know that the liberation of Iraq has divided public opinion – and that there is a frustration amongst some people about the pace of change and improvement in the public services. Many people feel that politicians are not talking a language they can relate to. Any Labour MP with an ear to the ground can tell you that. But the voters were not saying they want an alternative government. They were sending a message, but not engaging in mass defection. As one commentator put it, they were ‘giving us a kicking, but not kicking us out.’
Our task in coming months is to re-engage where trust has become frayed; to remind people of our achievements and dividing lines with the Tories, and to reassure them that we are on their side. For months, the media has been skewed towards international issues. We need to campaign on our domestic record – more police, more jobs, more hospitals, better school results, low interest rates and stable prices. Labour must mobilise its local supporters to campaign ‘below the radar’ of the national, London-based media.
We have hundreds of hard-working MPs, MSPs, AMs and councillors; we have a million and one success stories in every constituency in Britain; and we have a great story to tell in every locality. Our record contains many of the things we campaigned for during those dark years of opposition – conquering unemployment, tackling poverty, bringing new life to neglected neighbourhoods, reform of the constitution, devolution of power, the national minimum wage, and trade union rights. We should match the vigour and vibrancy of our campaigns against the Tories in the 1980s and 1990s with equally lively campaigns in support of Labour in the coming years.
Nothing can be taken for granted in politics. As a Labour activist for over twenty years, I know the bitter taste of defeat as well as the thrill of victory (and I know which I prefer!). What matters in coming months is to focus on the prize of a third term, to campaign like we’ve never campaigned before, and to stay on the side of the majority of hard-working people who want the best for their families and communities, and want a government that helps them thrive.