The news that the Tory party has overtaken Labour in the opinion polls suggests that the laws of political gravity – suspended on Black Wednesday in September 1992 – have once again reasserted themselves.
UK Polling Report indicates that, of the 17 national polls taken since David Cameron became Tory leader in December, 10 have shown the Conservatives in the lead, five put Labour ahead, and two have the two main parties level-pegging.
The Conservatives’ rise in the polls has prompted the media to speculate about the emergence of a ‘Cameron effect’, similar to that which boosted Labour in the wake of Tony Blair’s election as party leader in 1994.
It is certainly true that Cameron’s election appears to have allowed the Tories to break through the glass ceiling which had contained their support to around one in three of the electorate. Since December, the party has been consistently polling in the high-30s.
Comparisons with the mid-1990s, however, remain wide of the mark. By the time of his death in May 1994, John Smith had managed to put Labour in excess of 20 points ahead of the Tories; Tony Blair extended this lead to 30 per cent on becoming leader two months later. By contrast, the Tory lead over Labour has exceeded four per cent in only one poll: a December survey that put the Conservatives nine points up.
And while surveys indicate that voters are willing to keep an open mind about putting Cameron in No 10 – in the immediate aftermath of his election, two in three of those polled by ICM indicated that they saw him as a ‘potential prime minister’ – he has not yet managed to establish a lead over either Tony Blair or Gordon Brown. A recent Populus survey, for instance, suggests voters would prefer Brown as prime minister after the next election by a margin of 38 to 33 per cent. Similarly, a Mori poll for the Sun in January showed Blair trusted over Cameron on all but one – immigration and asylum – of eleven issues respondents were quizzed about.
Nonetheless, below the headline figures, Cameron’s rebranding strategy is beginning to pay dividends. Shortly before last year’s general election, Populus presented a summary of Tory immigration policy to voters, which was first unattributed, and then attributed, to the Conservatives. The research indicated that, once the policy was associated with the Tories, support for it fell significantly, particularly among floating voters.
In January, Populus conducted a similar survey, presenting voters with six statements of principles enunciated by Cameron since his election. All of them – on the NHS, fighting global poverty, attitudes to big business and the need to reform the police – commanded widespread public support and echo positions long taken by Labour.
However, the research this time indicated that attributing the statements to Cameron did not lead to a sharp drop in support. On some issues, such as police reform, support actually rose once the Tory leader’s name was attached to it.
The Tories’ rise in the polls appears to rest on the back of a recovery in their support among middle-class AB voters. Populus’ February poll shows the Conservatives up eight points amongst this group since the general election. The survey also suggests that Labour’s share of the AB vote is up since last May, thanks to a sharp drop in Lib Dem support. This illustrates the as yet unclear impact of the third party’s difficulties since the new year.
But while the Tories’ may be recovering among middle-class voters, Populus indicates that their support among skilled working-class C2 voters has actually declined since the general election, with Labour extending its already strong lead. This disparity is likely to increase the unhappiness of those Tories who believe that, if he wants to maintain the party’s identity, Cameron, like George Bush and John Howard, should forsake middle-class professionals and go after blue-collar ‘strivers’ instead.
The former aide to Margaret Thatcher, John O’Sullivan, warns the Tories that the middle class has ‘changed its self-image, political opinions and sensibilities; become, in a word, “Curtis-land”’ – the multi-ethnic, multi-faith, London middle class of Richard Curtis’ Four Weddings and a Funeral, Notting Hill, and Love, Actually – where everybody holds ‘excruciatingly nice opinions’. Not an assessment designed to play well with the Notting Hill set, perhaps?