Checking the email of Tacticalvoter.net, the anti-Tory vote-swapping campaign, was a good grounding in political invective. Furious Tories accused us of being an anti-democratic left-wing plot; messages from Labour and Lib Dem stalwarts each accused us of being a front for the other. Fortunately, the rest of the mail was from centre-left voters thrilled at the opportunity to make their votes count and have a chance of avoiding a Conservative MP.
In 2001, Tacticalvoter was primarily web-based, using national publicity to build awareness. In 2005, with a much earlier start to the operation, we placed the emphasis on supporting local campaigns. Constituency-specific letters were offered to over 100 key campaigns. Many CLPs exploited these to good effect, targeting Lib Dem-leaning wards. As well as the general awareness created, our users swung a seat for each party in 2001. The offline activity of 2005 is harder to measure, but one Labour MP emailed to thank the campaign for saving his seat.
Psephologists predicted that 2005 would see ‘tactical unwind’, with Lib Dem and Labour supporters retreating to their camps in response to the increased hostility between the parties at the national level. However, John Curtice has suggested that overall tactical voting remained steady at around 9 per cent of all votes cast. Is this a long-term level?
Tactical voting results from two sets of forces. The ‘pull’ derives from the attractiveness of the party to which a voter might switch; the ‘push’ is a compound of hostility for the party they seek to avoid, and the fear that it might get into power. Voters surveyed at the last election continued to see Labour and the Lib Dems as similar offerings; if that situation can be recovered in time, there will be little change to the pull factor. But prolonged absence makes the heart grow fonder, and the affable David Cameron will make memories of the nasty party fade faster. On the positive side, though hate may be down, with luck, fear will be up. Those who maintain their animosity might be turned tactical by the realistic chance of a Tory administration.
The recent local election results have also served to clarify the choices of tactical voters. In south London, the last three Labour councillors in Sutton, and the last three Lib Dems in Croydon, disappeared from the electoral map. This is a pattern repeated across the country. Of 386 councils in England, 68 have no Labour representatives and 38 no Lib Dems. One centre-left party’s local invisibility leaves a clear run for the other, with the increased likelihood of tactical voting entrenching their relative positions.
Concentrating resources on winnable campaigns frees more activists to get the Labour vote out where it matters. Leaving other seats (almost) clear for the Lib Dems prevents the Conservatives concentrating their firepower in the same way. This military approach to winning electoral territory is rather distasteful, but it obeys the logic of an unreformed electoral system: ruthless triage of seats into safe, marginal or ‘best left to the Lib Dems’. The Lib Dems, always more dependent on the strength of local campaigning than the two main parties, will be even more ruthless in their targeting now the Tories are resurgent: Labour should follow suit.
Hoping that both parties will focus on the main enemy, Tacticalvoter will announce its recommendations within the next year, and issue detailed constituency profiles and campaign packs with examples of successful tactical campaigning. The campaign will be ‘under new ownership’, however, as I have come off the fence and joined the Labour party. Applications invited from anyone on the centre left, unaffiliated and thick-skinned.