One of the abiding mysteries of the current age is why the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is still very much with us when other major trouble hotspots of the last century – notably those involving South Africa, the Soviet Union and Northern Ireland – have all moved on. The mystery deepens when we consider that virtually all the principal parties broadly agree on the contours of a solution, based on two states and a comprehensive regional settlement with full peace and normalization of relations. So why is it proving so intractable and what may be done?

After a prolonged period of immobility on the peace front, recent weeks have seen the high-level appointment of Tony Blair as the Quartet’s new envoy, President Bush’s announcement of an international conference in November, pledges from Israeli Prime Minister Olmert and Palestinian President Abbas to negotiate a ‘declaration of principles’, and Israel’s decision to release some Palestinian prisoners and tax revenues.

According to Olmert, these and other proposed measures are intended to help the Palestinians “build a viable and durable state”. Secretary of State Rice has gone further than before in cautioning Israel that its future does not lie in “continued occupation of the West Bank”. But she may need to go further still and take a sturdy leaf out of President Eisenhower’s book of 1956 when he responded resolutely to Israel’s initial reluctance to withdraw from Sinai. For if Israel was truly committed to a Palestinian state, and not just paying lip service to it, it has enough ingenuity – and has had forty years – to find a way to withdraw from the West Bank. Meanwhile, the building of settlements, by-pass roads and the horrendous wall continues, carving the territory into isolated enclaves.

Tony Blair’s official mission is in danger of being a complete waste of everyone’s time and his talents. Strengthening Palestinian institutions and massaging the West Bank economy are, at this point, essentially side shows and part of a misguided strategy to drive a wedge between the ‘moderate’ Fatah and ‘extremist’ Hamas, conceived against a backdrop of the ‘war on terror’ rather than a foreground of peace between the Israeli and Palestinian peoples.

Building a state in absentia is pointless and disheartening for its intended beneficiaries without an assurance that the creation of such an entity is both certain and imminent. There is virtual unanimity among Palestinians of all hues that their state must be based on the 1967 lines (even if there is an equitable exchange of land), comprise both the West Bank and Gaza and be contiguous and viable. To effect an agreement and make it stick, all major factions have to be brought on board. Isolating Hamas and the significant current of opinion it reflects is no more helpful to this end than similarly ill-advised boycotts of sectors of Israeli society.

The main prerequisite of progress is a clear commitment by the Israeli government that, subject to the usual caveats, it is prepared in principle to withdraw fully from the West Bank. This is where the pressure should be focused. Without such a firm declaration, all other activity is without purpose. Israel has legitimate security and other interests, but further prolonging its occupation of Palestinian lands and lives is assuredly not one of them.

While regrettable, the collapse of the Palestinian government of national unity and the temporary separation of the West Bank and Gaza has uncomplicated the situation and could be turned to advantage. What is needed is a tacit agreement between Fatah and Hamas not to interfere in the territory currently ruled by the other, and for Israel and Hamas to observe a state of non-belligerency and ensure the basic needs of the Gaza population are properly provided for. This would free Israel and Abbas to negotiate the modalities of Israel’s withdrawal from the West Bank and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state there. The subsequent inclusion of the Gaza Strip would then be essentially an internal Palestinian matter, to be determined in due course.

Peace between Israelis and Palestinians is not far-fetched. But unless the right steps are taken for the right reasons at the right time, it might never happen. And that, alas, is a distinct possibility.