It’s time to play our play our favourite version of political truth or dare again. Whether it’s because the European elections are perceived as particularly dull, or whether because, in this year of superlatives, we are no longer able to resist the pull of a ‘bigger-than-ever’, ‘historic-breakthrough’ hyperbole, commentators are once again raising the possibility of the BNP making a breakthrough in the European elections and gaining a seat in Brussels. 

But we really shouldn’t believe the BNP’s own hype. Speculating about all this (and certainly combating their influence on the door step) isn’t baseless or frivolous – the BNP are worth fighting. But we should focus on what’s more likely to be the destructive results of the European elections this year: low turn out, cynicism and popular anger. None of which really point to a BNP breakthrough. Many have argued that the combination of the expenses scandal, a recession and lingering anger against bankers would lead to a surge in support for the BNP. But the fact is that such a combination is a surefire recipe for a populist vote rather than for a far right resurgence. The people who stand to gain – where they exist – are the likes of UKIP. Those parties who, rather than attack immigrants or raise the specter of terrorism, will follow a time honoured tradition of ‘fat-cat’ bashing in the hopes of appealing to people’s wounded pride, outrage and fear. The BNP’s moment (which they reassuringly but singularly failed to seize) has passed. The public is infinitely more concerned (rightly or wrongly) with punishing an abusive and disconnected set of elites – all of which get lumped together – than they are about the BNP’s hobby-horses. That’s not to say that the BNP will definitely not gain a seat in Brussels—but the voting intentions for them remain low (about 4%), and the public’s anger remains high. It would seem that this anger will be channeled in more insidious ways.
 
But, let’s consider this – what would be the consequences of the BNP getting a seat in Brussels? Demoralising? Yes, for sure. Disastrous? Not really. While any seat for the far right is a seat too many and while gaining a presence in an international political arena is something that has sometimes given these parties a foothold, what we mostly see resulting from their acceding to this arena is their incapacity to enter into serious politics coupled with their near-laughable capacity to self-destruct. The story evoked is always one in which, upon being elected to the European parliament, European far right parties form a nasty, powerful block and eat away at Europe’s democratic fabric from the inside, whilst impressing the good folk at home with their organizational and political skills. The reality is always one in which they hate each other (think about it—why would these rabid nationalists all of a sudden become adept international cooperators?), form a group willy-nilly, have an argument and fade away.

The likes of UKIP on the other hand are much more savvy and they know their moment is now. A moment in which the price of liberal democracy is made to seem too great and when retreat, protectionism, and small-mindedness seem like appealing and reassuring options. A time during which left and right can easily become blurred in the defense of ‘ordinary people’ against anything that smacks of difference, openness and internationalism. Populist parties will oleaginously appeal to both your common sense and your sense of self-righteous disgust. Both of which, I’m afraid, are in vast supply at the moment.

One question remains – why then continuously raise the spectre of the BNP?  A first reason might simply be a perceived duty to raise awareness – and that is indeed needed. At a local level the BNP are effective mobilisers and complacency is not an option. But beneath these valorous concerns, might also lurk baser motives– the BNP (and their European counterparts) seem scarier and they’re a much more effective way of getting well-meaning – though slightly gullible – voters to the voting booth for a set of elections that don’t command much attention or passion. Turn up! Go vote! But don’t do it just to bar the road to the likes of Nick Griffin or UKIP’s besuited bullies. Do it because Europe, for all its failings is still the best arena from which to seize not a populist moment, but an international opportunity.