Following such a turbulent week in British politics, it is easy to forget that Europe’s most significant election this year is ongoing. The French political scene has been hit by its own dose of scandal this weekend as the Sarkozy and Hollande battle nears its end, at the midpoint of the two rounds of voting.
Yet despite the dramatic climax of the campaign’s final straits, the major trends and attitudes have not changed. Next Sunday, when we will in all likelihood still be lamenting our chronically inept government, it looks like our neighbours across the Channel will seize the opportunity to kick Sarkozy out.
From the re-emergence of DSK on the political scene to allegations that Gaddafi agreed to donate €50 million to Sarkozy’s 2007 election campaign, both left and right have been hit by upheaval over the last few days. Although serious, the allegations against Sarkozy are hardly game-changing at this stage: it appears that the public have already made up their minds on Sarkozy, tired of his broken promises, bling and populism.
As many predicted, given a weak first-round performance and the historic gains of the Front National, Sarkozy has planted himself firmly on the right in an attempt to woo the 17.9 per cent who opted for Marine Le Pen.
The president’s strategy was made clear in Sunday’s big rally at Toulouse. Certainly, he attempted to distance his party from Le Pen’s, vehemently rejecting the idea that there would be any deals with the FN to trade support for ministerial posts. Yet despite this refusal to ally himself with the party, he unashamedly reproduced their rhetoric. Borders were the centrepiece of Sarkozy’s speech, declared to be of ‘crucial importance’ in an age of globalisation, while his reference to a ‘Europe of peoples’ alarmingly evoked far-right campaigns from across the continent.
Calling it his duty to ‘present an alternative’ to Le Pen, Sarkozy went on to claim that the voters who turned out for the FN’s leader ‘don’t belong to her’. The president-candidate evidently believes that they are rightfully his.
Indeed, commentators have been quick to observe that the vote for the right overall is greater than that for the left. Together, first round votes for Sarkozy and Le Pen alone reach an impressive 45 per cent. Add to this centrist Francois Bayrou’s nine per cent and the right is indeed well ahead of Hollande and far left Jean-Luc Melenchon’s combined total of just under 40 per cent.
Yet such an analysis mistakenly interprets the Le Pen electorate. Far from being a statement about the increasing traction of far-right ideology in France, Le Pen’s success really demonstrates what rewards successful rebranding can reap. Many of her votes were grounded in a far more pernicious disenchantment with politics, rather than genuine support for the intolerance she promotes.
In reality, instead of turning in their droves to Sarkozy, many of the heterogeneous FN electorate are very likely to abstain: this figure reached 38 per cent in an Ifop-Paris Match poll published yesterday, with Sarkozy on 45 per cent. His vote share will hardly be improved if, as expected, Le Pen advises her supporters to abstain at a major rally today. The same Ifop poll gives Hollande 18 per cent of FN votes, and – ahead of Sarkozy by six points – 33 per cent amongst Bayrou voters.
The president has thus far been incapable of building the broad coalition of votes necessary for overall victory, which Hollande clearly boasts across the left and well into the centre ground. Overall, the socialist candidate is ahead of his opponent in all but the 65 and above age group. Polls since the first round have barely varied beyond a 54 or 55 per cent victory for Hollande.
The perennial two-round conundrum of the French electoral system finds Sarkozy in more of a fix than his Socialist rival. Playing to the right is thus far not paying the dividends required to win, as much of the complex and fractured first round vote is united in anti-Sarkozyism and a profound desire for change. Certainly, Hollande must keep the centre on board as well as the traditional left, and he would be the last person to take his persistent lead for granted. Yet keeping up his momentum as he is, on 6 May the man dubbed as normal may well pull off something extraordinary for the left – in France and across Europe.
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Felicity Slater is a Progress member, tweets @felicityslater and writes on French politics at felicityinfrance.wordpress.com
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