The modern world is not a very fun place to be a moderniser. But after a decade of frustration, despair and defeat, those of us on the British centre left should at least have been more emotionally prepared than most for the bonfire of optimism that 2016 has brought to politics. Our buffer zone of cynicism should have been strong enough, our gallows humour honed to perfection. But I cannot be alone in having been hit particularly hard by the victory of Donald Trump last week. Perhaps I have taken this so personally because in the wreckage of Hillary Clinton’s campaign is buried at lot of what I thought I understood about politics and about people.

Because the truth is, if the last few years have been dispiriting for modernisers, they have also been strangely luxurious. We may have lost again and again, but none of these losses have really shaken the core of our faith in our politics. As Stephen Bush puts it in his podcast, we have long argued that while we may have an activist problem we do not have an electorate problem. We have shaken our heads in sorrow at those who do not understand the public as we do. No matter how badly things have gone, it has been an extraordinary comfort to believe that the road to victory runs pretty much through your own politics. Now I am not so sure.

As I snap out of my comfortable certainty, many are moving the other way. For some Jeremy Corbyn supporters it seems that nothing can happen in 2016 that does not confirm that their view of politics is essentially right. The establishment is in retreat. Neoliberalism has failed the workers. The anaemic liberal centre is dead and they, the people that time forgot, are the inheritors of the earth. It must be very exciting. So exciting in fact that some have come dangerously close to welcoming the election of a tyrannical fascist to the position we used to describe as the leader of the free world. They dance in the ruins of ‘the establishment’ oblivious to how many of the crumbling pillars were supporting the things they profess to care about.

There is nothing for any part of the left to welcome in the dawn of this new age of intolerance. Left economic populism is not the answer to assuaging the rampant ethnonationalism stalking our politics, nor is there any evidence that Corbyn is going down particularly well among the legions of the ‘left behind’ that are supposed to be about to sweep him to power. But while it easy to say why the far left are wrong, it is harder than ever to say what the right approach is. If we are the keepers of some kind of modernising flame, we have to be honest about the great swathes of darkness that it no longer illuminates.

So what then for the centre left in the age of the extremes? The complacent dead end politics of the far left is not the answer. And the new movement of so-called post-liberals offer little more than smugness and surrender, encouraging us to nod along when we are told that all this feminism and multiculturalism has just gone a bit too far. For my part I have never been less sure of what needs to be done, but more motivated to do it. One thing I have resolved is that, as I loosen my grip on what I think I know, I will hold my values and beliefs more tightly. I urgently want to understand this new right populism, but I have no desire to compromise with anyone who votes for far right populists or repeats their hateful rhetoric. If anything, I think we need to do the opposite, to make a more full blooded case for the kind of society we want to live in. To defeat those who preach this hatred we must understand its appeal, empathise with the frustration people feel but never waver in the condemnation of the expression of this frustration or give tacit approval to the idea that intolerance is a justifiable response to economic anxiety.

‘Their world is dying, ours is being born’ was the prophecy from one of Le Pen’s advisers last Wednesday morning. Maybe they are wrong and all this will pass. Maybe the scales will fall from people’s eyes as Trump flounders and Brexit runs aground. Maybe this is the last dying scream of the white nationalists in the face demographic change and a new generation of young liberals who treat them with disdain. Maybe. If 2016 has taught us anything it is to assume the worst. We are staring at an existential threat to everything we believe in and have fought for. We must face tomorrow with fresh humility but with renewed determination.

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Tom Railton is a member of Progress. He tweets @TomRailton1

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