In a year not short of unexpected political developments, François Fillon has, against all odds, stormed the French centre-right primary. While has was stagnating between 5 and 10 per cent in the polls until September 2016, Fillon scored an impressive 44 per cent in the first round on 21 November, clearly defeating former president Nicolas Sarkozy and another former prime minister, Alain Juppé. On 28 November, he easily took over the latter in the run-off, attracting 66 per cent of the votes. Fillon is now the uncontested Republican candidate for the presidential election that will take place in April/May 2017. He has a strong chance of getting elected.
Fillon’s ascent happened very suddenly, in the last few weeks before the vote. With Sarkozy and Juppé leading the race, he and other candidates received little attention. For many, the primary was a referendum for or against Sarkozy. While the former president’s judicial problems and divisive style put off many centre-right voters, Juppé was perceived as a more serious and moderate alternative. Yet, the lack of enthusiasm behind Juppé, his centrist image, the fact that a lot of centre-left voters said they would turn up and vote for him, proved fertile ground for a more robust right-wing alternative to Sarkozy. Enter Fillon, who performed very strongly in the three television debates that took place in October and November.
François Fillon is not new to French people. He was Sarkozy’s obedient and austere prime minister for five years (2007-2012), a rare longevity in this function. Though not loved by French people, his serious and hardworking style earned him respect from many. He was the first one to announce he would run in the 2016 centre-right primary as early as 2013. Fillon dedicated three years traveling through the country, taking the mood, polishing his platform. To claim, as he did last week, that his performance was no coincidence and based on ideas, is not overstated.
Is Fillon the Thatcherite conservative depicted by the French and British press? Economically, there is no doubt that he offers the sort of ‘shock therapy’ made famous by the Iron Lady. For him, France’s sluggish competitiveness and structurally high unemployment are down to its generous holiday entitlements, rigid labour laws and punitive taxes on the rich. To put it simply, French people have to work more and trade unions have to be tamed. In the first three months of his presidency, there would be a radical simplification of labour laws, the 35 hour working week would be scrapped, pensions would be reformed, tax would be reform to boost private investment and vocational education would be reinforced.
Nonetheless, there are two other aspects to Fillon’s platform that do not exactly square with Thatcher’s liberalism and Atlanticism. First, he is socially conservative, hinting at possible setbacks for gay married couples who have adopted children. He also criticises the idea of a multicultural society, using the rhetoric of ‘migrants assimilation’ which goes down well with Front National voters. Second, he borrows from Gaullist legacy when appealing to French people’s yearning for international autonomy and grandeur. The links to Vladimir Putin are slightly exaggerated: Fillon does not want France to abandon Nato and start a new alliance with Russia. However, he does think that France should talk to everyone and deal with Russia’s feelings more carefully.
Some might think Fillon’s nomination is a blessing in disguise for the left. An unambiguously rightwing politician, he will be an easier target than the centrist Juppé would have been. Fillon’s platform can easily be denounced as reactionary and overly-pessimistic, offering only blood and tears. However, the left is severely divided and not in a position to seize the momentum. On a spectrum that ranges from the centrist Emmanuel Macron to the leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a number of would-be candidates have signalled their interest in running. Even if François Hollande or Manuel Valls end up being the Socialist candidate, their chances of beating Marine Le Pen and making it to the second round of the presidential election are very slim. On the left of the Parti Socialiste, a profile like Benoit Hamon is probably what comes closest to what Fillon is to the right: a hardworking, respected figure whose leftwing credentials cannot be disputed. Emmanuel Macron also has a card to play by appealing to progressive liberals from both the centre-right and the centre-left. Yet, in a polarised environment marked by a hardening of social attitudes across Europe, the French left, like the British or the German left, is likely to be condemned to opposition in the next few years.
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Renaud Thillaye is research associate at Policy Network. He tweets at @RThillaye
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Trump did not win the centre ground but he still won. Likewise, Labour can’t win by being Tory-lite.
François Fillon is an opponent of François Hollande’s interventionist foreign policy, and he is a supporter of peace and co-operation with Russia. He is wrong about domestic economic policy. But that is of less concern to the rest of us. Not none. But less. Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen is wrong about everything. Her election would send the most horrific signal. There would be triumphant pogroms, and not only in France. Of course, those might not be the two names that went through to the second round. But they probably will be. And if those are the only two names on the ballot, then you really do have to pick one of them.