Labour must not duck the big questions on immigration, but it cannot that pretend there are easy answers on Brexit either, argues Seb Dance MEP
I have consistently questioned the decision of some of my Labour colleagues to make ending freedom of movement a red line in Brexit negotiations.
I understand why members of parliament, particularly in seats with a Leave majority, see opposition to free movement as a political imperative. I know that Labour MPs who want to openly discuss immigration are not trying to outdo Ukip, and I too want Labour to re-engage with our traditional communities.
But we must be honest about the fact that it is impossible to end freedom of movement while also remaining in the single market. We must be honest about the impact this would have on living standards in Labour areas. And we must be honest that there is no quick fix United Kingdom-European Union trade deal on offer to resolve this conflict.
The warning from Sir Ivan Rogers, the UK’s ambassador in Brussels, that a post-Brexit agreement on trade could take ten years to agree should come as a shock only to those who have not been paying attention. For too long this idea of a quick, simple trade deal has been given far too much currency on these shores. The British press and many of our politicians have been playing out a fantasy – a fantasy in which Britain will be given a cushy deal with all of the economic gain of the single market with none of the political pain of freedom of movement.
The reality is that, faced with their own political headaches and impending elections at home, European leaders are uniting behind an increasingly impenetrable position in which the preservation of the EU far outweighs the economic needs of Britain.
Last week, Angela Merkel once again reiterated that there would be no ‘cherry-picking’ on the four freedoms. No free movement, no single market. Even if a deal can be struck between heads of state there is still the tricky subject of getting it through another of the European institutions – the European parliament. Members of the European parliament will have a vote on the final negotiated deal. Ifappeasing all 27 remaining member state governments is difficult, try getting a deal past 751 MEPs from 28 different countries split across seven political groups and a smattering of independents.
Last month, leaders of the political groups in which MEPs sit met to discuss the parliament’s negotiating position. Lo and behold, they too will form a united front in rejecting any deal that undermines freedom of movement. If the European parliament rejects the deal, then Britain will bedumped out of the EU and a ‘hard Brexit’ forced upon us.
The UK would then have to begin the hard work of negotiating a bilateral free trade deal in an attempt to mitigate the economic impact of leaving the single market.
Unfortunately for the UK government, as Rodgers has highlighted, this could take up to a decade – a decade in which the UK economy would be subject to World Trade Organisation tariffs with our largest trading partners – that is 10 per cent for cars, 12 per cent for clothing and 40 per cent for lamb.
And let us be clear: we will not be negotiating with the German car industry. We will be negotiating with 27 countries, many of whom do not export much to the UK.
WTO rules will not only hit British jobs and businesses that rely on selling their products to Europe, it will also push up prices for consumers. At a time when millions of ordinary people across the UK are already struggling to make ends to meet.
I do not underestimate the task at hand. But Labour politicians must stop colluding in a fantasy that free movement can be ended without hitting hardest those we need to stand up for.
I accept that MPs cannot afford to duck the big questions when it comes to immigration, but they should not pretend there are easy answers when it comes to Brexit. Single market membership is paramount. Without it, Brexit will be very painful but it will not be very quick.
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Seb Dance is a member of the European parliament. He tweets at @SebDance
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Then we must go for the nuclear option – WTO or whatever.
The UK people will benefit by having to roll up their sleeves and pull together.
This is just another war – a fight for our democracy, without EU blackmail.
Have you noticed there have been no announcements of updated membership numbers since Jeremy Corbyn’s renewed mandate in September? It’s unlikely to be accidental! (Tom Watson and his Project Anaconda and all that.)
The good news is that membership is now touching 630,000, up by around 80,000 from its previous reported high, by the time of the leadership election result, of 551,000.
That figure of 551k was itself up by around 160,000 on the figure in late June, with an astonishing 128,000 joining in just the two weeks after the EU referendum.
Tory-lite Labour’s narrative has been that ‘a lot’ of members have been leaving after Corbyn’s 2nd victory. Possibly – but, if so, clearly dwarfed by the new members flocking in.
Good article Seb. First realistic assessment of the true damage Brexit will cause. The Leave campaign’s own figures suggest that a hard brexit will cause unemployment to rise to 7-8 million and the cost to the treasury to be greater than the entire NHS budget.
There will be no “pulling together” just grinding poverty for decades.