The French presidential frontrunner will be competing against low turnout to hold back the tide of populism, says Alex Porter

Polling, as we are all keenly aware, has been wrong before. Although the outcomes of the upcoming elections either side of the Channel seem set in stone, pundits remain reluctant to place their bets too early.

In France, over 80 per cent of voters expect the centrist candidate, Emmanuel Macron to be their next President, with the polling from Opinionway, following a survey of 2,000 voters earlier this week, predicting him to clinch victory over the National Front’s Marine Le Pen with 61 per cent of the vote.

Of course, both Macron and Theresa May will be acutely aware of the danger overconfidence brings, with the threat of low turnout. Macron, in particular, will be concerned about an unreliable voting base. With the support of practically the whole French political establishment, he is likely to pick up the votes of François Fillon and Benoît Hamon supporters, but much of his support in the first round came from tactical voters.

An Ipsos poll in the week before the first vote found Macron voters, more than supporters of any other candidate, planning to vote for him in order to prevent another candidate from making it through to the next round.

Following last week’s Champs Élysées attack on a policeman by an Islamic State sympathiser, Opinionway polling indicated the importance of ‘the fight against terrorism’ at its highest level since the election campaign began with 42 per cent of respondent saying that it will be an important factor in deciding their vote.

The effect of Le Pen’s attempts to distance herself from her party are also uncertain. Attacking from the left and right, the candidate will be reaching out to supporters of the centre-right Republican party, as well as those who backed the far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, who is yet to endorse either of the remaining horses in the race.

Presuming the polls, on this occasion, are reliable and Macron does emerge victorious, we will have yet another example of continental Europe rejecting the wave of populism that is sweeping the English speaking world. With Austria, the Netherlands and, in all likelihood, France, turning away from far-right candidates, the United Kingdom looks set to be further isolated in its awkward position in the mid-Atlantic, as it negotiates Brexit.

Cosying up to an American neighbour may well prove to not be as worthwhile a use of political capital as May anticipated, given Trump’s overtures of preferential treatment for the UK now seem as fickle as his other political convictions.

Following a recent meeting with Angela Merkel, Trump has reportedly acquiesced to the idea of trading with the European bloc as a whole, and is eager to strike a deal. With Britain unable to agree any deals of its own until after Brexit is finalised, the prime minister could find herself pushed to the back of the queue.

Macron has vowed to drive a hard bargain over Brexit, seeing it as a matter of defending the European project and favouring a punitive approach to the ‘crime’ of Brexit. Stuck between a fickle friend the other side of the Atlantic and an ardent Europhile across the Channel, rather than getting the best of both worlds as a mid-Atlantic mediator, the government might find itself left out as a new relationship blossoms on the global political playground.

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Alex Porter is project manager of communications at Policy Network. She tweets at @AlexGPorter ‏

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