A cursory glance at the polls of the last 10 years shows an extraordinary change in the priorities of British voters. In 1997, the EU, unemployment, education and the NHS led the list of issues that voters said were vital. Ten years on, the issue list looks different. Health and education remain on the radar. But crime, race relations and defence have rocketed up the table.
One look in the super-marginals and the lesson is clearer still. At the next election, the votes in 48 constituencies will be absolutely crucial to who walks through the door of No 10. These are the seats where Labour’s majority is 2.5 per cent or less – or where the combined lead of our opponents is three per cent or lower. They are seats like the seven Labour seats in Kent; the nine Labour seats in the M4 corridor; or the seats in the M25 belt.
These are voters who, on the whole, feel positive about the places they live. But, alongside immigration, they point to crime as their number one or number two priority issue, with concerns about anti-social behaviour, ‘teenagers hanging about’, drug-dealing, violent crime (especially alcohol-related violence) and car damage or theft topping their list. Crucially, although most of these voters have experienced a fall in the crime rate over the last few years, their satisfaction with the police has often gone down.
When we put the national interest and Labour’s political interest together, three fields of crime and security policy become critical to the first 100 days of a new administration.
National security is most important of all. No one could or should trust a party that is weak or indecisive on security at a time when the terrorist threat to our country is ‘severe’. The response of our security services to the challenges they face has been magnificent – but they are services that must often keep their success a secret.
There are, however, two signals that government can send. First, use the comprehensive spending review to underline the priority we give to supporting our security services in keeping their capabilities at the cutting edge, including their joint work with the Border and Immigration Agency securing our borders. And second, take every step necessary to strengthen national leadership and coordination of our counter-terrorist effort.
Policing is the second key issue. In 1997, we inherited rising crime, falling police numbers, and a failing criminal justice system. Today, the chance of becoming a victim of crime remains at its lowest for 20 years – since the British Crime Survey began in 1981. By March 2002, police numbers hit a record high – 129,603 – the largest increase since 1981. Yet, although crime is down by a third, most voters think it’s going up. Our new police are doing the job, but not getting the credit.
Strengthening the police’s link to the public is vital to reversing this. Home Office research shows that where new neighbourhood policing teams change the way they work with the public, the change in local public confidence is often remarkable. But we have to transform this dialogue everywhere.
Priority number three is reform of the criminal justice system and prisons. Some of the forces driving crime – international organised crime and addiction to drugs – are very powerful. Turnover from global organised crime made it the fourth largest force in the global economy – ahead of the UK.
Yet the average age of a criminal offender is 19, and the majority of street crime is committed by those under 17. Addiction to drugs is often a key factor. Without reform of how the prison system works, and how we reverse rates of recidivism that appear so stubborn, we will fail to deliver – and fail to convince the public – that we have long-term answers to the problem.
In the past, the Tories have often had a natural lead on security and crime, but it is a lead David Cameron’s sound-bite politics has put in jeopardy. Not only can Labour win on this agenda. We must.
