What do you get if you combine a billion votes, a month of polling, and election officials criss-crossing desert, mountains and jungle? The answer is the largest ever expression of democratic will, India’s 2009 general election. India this week announced the dates – 16 April to 16 May – when elections to its parliament, the Lok Sabha, will take place.
The elections are truly a gargantuan logistical task. Some problems are at the micro level – literally. To reach the most isolated voter, a Hindu priest who lives alone in a temple 40 kilometres from the closest village, a group of officials will cut through thick forest to establish a polling station, at which he will be the sole voter. Other problems are national. The attacks on the Sri Lankan cricket team have shown that terrorist elements in the region, who could gain from disrupting the elections, are strengthening. As a result, the home minister has requested that the Indian Premier League – a cricket league at least as important to India as our premier league is to us – be re-scheduled. Providing security for two attractive terror targets simultaneously is more than the government wants to take on.
But security is not just a part of the election spectacle. Alongside the economy, it is the top electoral issue in national opinion polls. Whichever party is able to convince the voter that they can address these twin concerns looks likely to have a decisive advantage.
Currently, that looks like the current government, made up of Congress and their UPA allies. Their main rivals, the right-wing BJP and its NDA allies are struggling to make any headway. This is particularly problematic for the BJP given that security is felt to be their natural battle ground, and given that the global slowdown should offer plentiful opportunities to attack the government on economic grounds. However, Congress is felt to have dealt with the Mumbai attacks of last year effectively, undercutting the BJP’s claims that their more left-wing opponents are ‘soft on terror’. Sound familiar? So too does the fact that whilst Congress presides over a slowing economy, few are convinced that the opposition BJP is any better qualified to tackle it. On the major issues then, this election looks like Congress’s to lose.
But when was an election determined solely by manifestos? In this case, security and the economy probably come second to the question of alliances. Over the last couple of decades India’s major national parties have seen their vote share decline, and regional, religious and case based parties have filled the gap. Indeed, by the last general election, the two main parties together received less than 50 per cent of the vote. Negotiations over who allies with whom and under what terms, then, will be critical in determining who forms the next government. Looking stronger on the voters’ key concerns appears to be helping Congress win allies and devise advantageous seat sharing arrangements, but the smaller parties know their strength – delivery of vital ‘vote banks’ – and they play hardball. With people willing to sacrifice any semblance of ideology for a winning coalition, quite how the negotiations will turn out is anybody’s guess.
The other key factor is messaging. A key reason for the BJP’s loss of power in the last elections was their electoral slogan, ‘India Shining.’ It looked arrogant to the majority whose lives were far from ‘shining’. However, Congress may now be falling into the same trap. Their campaign anthem will be ‘Jai Ho’ (meaning ‘Victory’), India’s Oscar winning song from Slumdog Millionaire. The danger is it only reminds voters of the slum growth which has taken place under UPA government. The BJP approach has been to try to learn from the Obama campaign, particularly his use of the internet. Log on to the Guardian Online from India (a top site for Indian internet users) and you are greeted by an advert inviting you to vote BJP. Whether their more sophisticated campaign, however, will be enough to deliver victory is questionable. Web-based campaigns alone do not an Obama make.
So, with five weeks left to go, few are predicting anything other than a Congress and UPA victory. But with alliances still to be formed, campaigns still to be run and the politician’s nightmare ‘events’ still to unfold, it is all to play for. Except, of course, if you are an IPL cricketer.