I’d like to start by wishing everyone a happy St David’s Day. As I tuck into my Welsh cake this morning I had an opportunity to reflect on the current political situation in Wales. The week started brilliantly for Wales, with Scott Williams’ try bringing a victory against England in Sunday’s Six Nations game. Unfortunately even beating the old enemy on their home turf cannot mask the bad news we are hearing about the effects of the coalition’s policies in Wales.
Despite the healthy sporting rivalry, support for the union is still strong. A poll for the BBC found that only seven per cent of respondents favoured independence. Even if Scotland were to break away from the UK support would increase to a mere 12 per cent. This must come as bitter news to Plaid Cymru members who are currently choosing their next leader in the Welsh assembly.
However, the poll does show that a massive 77 per cent of people in Wales would rather keep the NHS in Wales as it is, than adopt the reforms in the coalition’s disastrous health and social care bill. This should be a wake-up call to David Cameron, who has tried to condemn the NHS in Wales to promote the bill. Instead he can add the people of Wales to the growing list of groups who oppose it.
This week, a report was published by the Welsh government, using evidence from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, which shows the projected impact of the government’s tax and welfare reforms on Wales. The report notes that Wales has a high dependency on benefits, with 18.4 per cent of the Welsh working-age population claiming benefits, as opposed to 14.5 per cent in the UK as a whole.
The IFS analysis shows that Wales will be disproportionately affected by the government’s policies, with households expected to lose 4.1 per cent of their income, or £1,110 a year. Particularly worrying is that families with children are likely to be hit hardest, with the poorest families likely to lose the highest share of their income. Policies like the abolition of the above-inflation increase in child tax credits mean that the Welsh government expects child poverty to increase by 6,000 in 2012-13.
Perhaps the most worrying element of these cuts is that rather than increasing employment, the IFS analysis shows that for certain groups, such as families with children, the incentive to work is weakened. Growing up in a workless family can have a terrible impact on a child’s future employment prospects, and fears of a lost generation are certainly growing in Wales.
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Nick Smith is MP for Blaenau Gwent
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