It must have been very depressing for Tories to read the papers this weekend. The fallout from the resignation of Andrew Mitchell as chief whip; the claim and counter claim about George Osborne’s train ticket dubbed ‘the Great Train Snobbery’; elder statesmen like Norman Tebbit and an array of little-known Tory backbenchers openly criticising the government’s lack of direction and competence; cabinet splits over the handling of ‘plebgate’ and the ‘back of an energy bill’ announcement made by the prime minister in the heat of PMQs and then rapidly ignored or disowned by the rest of government. What a change from my formative political years in the 1980s. In those days, Labour was seen as disunited, undisciplined and unable to formulate and present an election-winning programme to the British people. The Tories were disciplined, competent and in touch with the concerns of the majority of voters. That’s why they won and we lost.
We have much to be positive about at the moment. We have maintained discipline and focus in opposition. There has not been an early 1980s-style internal battle and rift. Following Ed Miliband’s conference speech, it feels like we are beginning to develop a story about the Britain we want and believe in.
For the Tories, however, it appears that they have never regained their Thatcherite high water level in terms of direction, discipline and deftness of touch. Much was made, not least by David Cameron himself, about the Tory leader being the ‘Heir to Blair’. To misuse Lloyd Bentsen’s classic US vice-presidential debate retort, ‘Mr Cameron, I served with Tony Blair, I knew Tony Blair, Tony Blair is a friend of mine. Mr Cameron, you’re no Tony Blair’.
In government, Blair had two vital ingredients that Cameron lacks. First, he was a winner. In my view, much of the difficulty faced by successive Tory chief whips in maintaining discipline comes down to this. Tory backbenchers expected to win the 2010 general election against a tired and unpopular Labour government. They didn’t and that seriously undermines the leverage that Cameron has over his own party. I can remember numerous times during the Labour government when whips and others pointed potential rebels to Blair’s election-winning ways. It’s a tough job to substitute your political judgement for that of an election-winning leader and most Labour backbenchers didn’t. For Tory backbenchers, I suspect that they all have a view about how they could have fought the election more successfully and they see little reason in hiding it.
Second, Blair had a clear view of what he wanted to achieve and was willing to make that argument to his party and to the country. There was always a feeling of momentum and driving forward. In fact, I can remember backbenchers often complaining that there was too much going on and why didn’t the government just slow down. While it often felt tiring and relentless, it was absolutely the right strategy. Like sharks, when governments stop going forward, they sink.
With the exception of deficit reduction, which is failing, Cameron does not have a clear vision for his government. Furthermore, even those issues and ideas which he has previously championed have been dropped. I’ve always been a fan of the potential of the ‘big society’ idea, but we hear nothing of this now. Today Cameron is delivering a speech on his ‘tough, but intelligent’ approach to crime and justice. I suppose this is better than a ‘soft and stupid’ approach, but bears no resemblance to his ‘hug-a-hoodie’ days. The green leaves of a Tory approach to the environment have long turned brown and dropped off leaving a bare policy tree when it comes to energy, green technology or climate change.
Of course, there is still time for the Tories to recover. Blair also used to joke about having the latest of a series of ‘worst weeks ever’. However, to get back on track, Cameron needs to look like a winner and develop a clear direction. If this doesn’t happen, the momentum is all with us. Let’s make it count.
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Jacqui Smith is former home secretary, writes the Monday Politics column for Progress, and tweets @smithjj62
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