As the dust settles from an inconclusive bout of county council elections, which left all, now four, party leaders with much to ponder, eyes flicker to the looming general election two years hence. Before that, though, UKIP seem almost certain to top the poll in the European elections next May. The mystery will be whether or not it can sustain its populist allure and continue to the greatest battlefield of all and triumph. Sections of the Conservative party certainly seem to think so as they indulge in themselves in vengeful bloodlust, evidence of which was all over the UKIP appeasement document that was masquerading as the Queen’s speech last week. Mostly the speech was a dreadful act of political cowardice and at its heart laid a cynical, tailored made political calculation designed to appeal to the lowest, most reactionary instincts found on the political spectrum. The question for Labour is: now that the coalition will increasingly cease to be a functioning government, interested far more in itself than in the country, can the party look two years hence with confidence, or conjecture?

Two weeks ago I wrote that for One Nation Labour to demonstrate it has the breadth and depth of appeal to outright win the next general election, it had to start winning in counties like Warwickshire. On election night a net gain of 12 seats represented a hardy haul indeed which, extrapolated to a general election, would indicate that the formerly Labour-held seats of North Warwickshire and Nuneaton will return to the fold, whereas Rugby and Warwick and Leamington remain a stubborn test. The two former should never have been lost, whereas the two latter signified the deep raids Labour was making into former Conservative territory. Today Warwickshire represents a UK version of Ohio – not too big, sometimes too easily ignored between elections, but crucial come 2015. Labour gains across the county and, to the west, in nearby Redditch, signified Labour’s return to a party of national significance in 1997.

That is what makes Progress’ Campaign for a Labour Majority so important. Ignoring the usual antagonists, the party is right to be ambitious for its target seats. Frankly, it needs to be. After the decimation of 2010 Labour simply does not exist in vast swaths of the country. And even in former parliamentary seats the Labour vote is greatly reduced and, in some extreme cases, the party has even sunk to third. The historical omens for the party are not good, which places yet more effort on a collective party effort to heave the party from scepticism to assurance that a Labour majority is all but secure.

This means the entire Labour body politic must pull in the same direction. It also means supporting free, fair and transparent candidate selections, which the Guardian reports today may not be taking place. In an ideal, no doubt utopian, to some, world, the Labour party would at last be at ease with itself and feel able to support candidates on their respective merits, and not which membership subs they happen to pay.

There is too much at stake to expend energy and collateral on internal battles. This coalition is descending into one of the most regressive, reactionary, prejudiced and destructive governments of the recent era. From the stalled economy to the bedroom tax, the Conservatives and their Liberal Democrat allies have repeatedly shown that they either do not or simply cannot govern for the many of this nation. One Nation Labour’s promise is to do just that. It is the tragedy of British politics that all too often it takes the election of the Conservatives to realise fully the worth of a Labour government. To achieve a majority Labour government, the work begins today.

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David Talbot is a political consultant. He tweets @_davetalbot