The cheers that accompanied François Hollande’s election seem a distant dream. Dismal economic results, a terrible press at home and abroad, and confusion about what the French president stands for, marred the anniversary of his first year in office on 6 May. His ratings have plummeted from more than 60 per cent in May 2012 to 25 per cent in April 2013. The change promised for France has not happened, and he is no longer the flag bearer for a different Europe.
As I argue in a recent study for Policy Network, part of the criticism is misplaced. In the English-speaking world especially, pundits continue to depict Hollande as a radical socialist who understands little about global economics and does not have the guts to undertake long-awaited domestic reforms. In that respect, however, the record of his government is far from negligible. The competitiveness gap is being addressed by a significant tax credit on social contributions expected to bring down the cost of labour. Social partners have crafted a historic agreement for labour market reforms that will give companies more flexibility and more incentives to create permanent jobs. Difficult decisions are looming in terms of public spending rationalisation, while the government is firmly committed to prioritise education and investment.
What undermines Hollande’s popularity has more to do with his extreme caution in pursuing a reforming course for a country facing deep-seated problems which have been amplified by the financial crisis. In that respect, the president can only blame himself for what he did not do in opposition, as Parti Socialiste leader and candidate. A shrewd tactician, he avoided engaging party members about the need to embrace a supply-side agenda and to revisit the social model. During last year’s campaign, his left-leaning speech at Le Bourget proved instrumental in his victory. Hence, he is inevitably criticised today by the left of the PS and by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leftwing insurgent candidate during the socialists’ primary for their presidential candidate, for implementing a programme for which he has no electoral mandate.
Can he make a comeback? His success will depend on improved growth prospects in Europe. In the meantime, he should not listen to those who call on him to reverse course and to beef up his attacks on Angela Merkel. Credibility and trust can only return in the long term if he spells out an unambiguous roadmap for reform. Instead of a cautious approach centred around the deficit target, he should explain how France will be able to cope with globalisation and European integration in the coming decades, while upholding living standards and a strong sense of fairness.
Of course, this implies distributional conflicts, which might lead to a political storm in the short term. Yet, this approach is the only way to confront widespread anxiety about the country’s predicament and to combat his image as a ‘directionless muddler’. Such a focus on reforms will also help him position France in a better light in Europe and score points for a different tack in Brussels and Berlin on austerity.
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Renaud Thillaye is senior researcher at Policy Network
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See the rest of the May 2013 edition of Progress
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