These could be the final days for the Republican party as we know it. Polls indicate that more Americans are blaming Republicans (44 per cent) than Democrats (35 per cent) for the current American federal government shutdown. A substantial majority of Americans (72 per cent) want the shutdown to end immediately, though 25 per cent believe it is worthwhile if it destroys the ACA. If John Boehner, the speaker of the House, were to put a clean bill (that is, one that funded the government without defunding the ACA) to a vote in the House, it would likely pass with the support of a small number of Republican moderates. However, it is also likely that Boehner would then be removed from his post and replaced with someone more hardline, and that any short-term funding gain for the government would only be good until the debt ceiling is reached next week. If the US does not significantly increase its borrowing limit it will default on its debts, with the likely consequence that this will kickstart a new global recession. These are very high stakes indeed.
At the heart of this political crisis are gaping chasms between Democrats and Republicans, and within the GOP itself, that cut far deeper than just a difference in views on the ACA. This crisis has been coming for a long time. It reflects a major polarisation in US politics and culture over the very heart and soul of Americana itself: what and who is a real American? What is the proper limit of government? What are the greatest threats to the American way of life?
On all these issues, the Dems remain solidly united; the GOP much less so. Some moderate Republican congressmen have expressed frustration with the tactics and aims of those in their own party who they believe are currently holding the government to ransom, but other conservative Republicans in Congress – particularly in the House – believe that they were elected to prevent the implementation of the ACA. According to Geoffrey Kabaservice in ‘Rule and Ruin’, the long war between the conservatives and the moderates in the Republican party can be traced back to the 1960s. The Republicans were the party of Lincoln, the party that brought an end to slavery. Yet over the last few decades they have moved increasingly to the right. The current shutdown is, in many ways, history repeating itself: in the mid-1990s Newt Gingrich, then speaker of the House, tried to force President Clinton to cut a trillion dollars from the budget, and in the meantime shut down the government for four weeks. ‘The American public, which did not share the conservative hatred of government, turned against Gingrich and his allies … But the conservatives had succeeded in shattering bipartisanship and cooperation in Congress … In the eyes of many [moderate Republicans], the new crop of young, ideologically driven Republicans lacked civility and respect for Congress as an institution.’
The GOP is now beholden to the tea party movement which is supported by some 25 per cent of Americans but disliked by almost 60 per cent. While both parties in Congress have very low approval rates the Republicans are significantly worse off (Democrats are on -9 per cent with the Republicans on -30 per cent). Much of the disapproval of the Republicans comes from those who support the party but do not believe it is hardline enough. Meanwhile, Republicans have only won one popular vote for president since 1988 and now only have control of the House in large part due to extensive gerrymandering over the past decade. In fact, the Republican party has had negative approval rates since 2005, whereas the Democrats have had positive approval rates for almost all of that period, and all of the demographics point to continuing decline in the Republican vote, and ascendancy for the Democrats. From the end of 2014, it is quite possible that the GOP will be out of power in the federal government for a generation and will increasingly resort to tactics like those they are currently deploying – if the party cannot compromise within itself, there is little hope of it being able to do so with the Democrats.
America is a nation divided, and its divisions are reflected in, and exacerbated by, its politics. The shutdown will end. The government will be allowed to borrow more money. The ACA will be funded. But the hatred will not be dissipated, it will increase. The divisions will not heal, they will widen. The misunderstandings will continue to multiply. And the United States will continue to disunite.
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Well said!