Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a major foreign policy test for the west. Barack Obama has said he is ‘examining a whole series of steps – economic, diplomatic – that will isolate Russia and will have a negative impact on Russia’s economy and status in the world’. In this he might attain some degree of bipartisan agreement in the United States, but he could end up taking on Europe as well as Vladimir Putin. Russia has clearly made a major strategic blunder, but that does not mean that the west will not do likewise.
The Center for American Progress, a Democrat thinktank, has made a number of suggestions for action, including pressing Russia to abide by its international treaty obligations, freezing assets, banning travel, isolating Russia in the international arena, and providing financial and intelligence assistance to Ukraine. Much of this is in line not only with emerging White House policy, and with wider Democrat thought, but also with Republican discussions. John McCain believes now is the time to encourage Ukraine to join Nato, and Marco Rubio has said the US must punish Russia (Rand Paul is in a small minority in his call to not antagonise Putin). Most Republicans hold a centrist view and both parties want to put aside their domestic differences for now, as demonstrated by last Friday’s joint letter signed by six Democrats and six Republicans pledging bipartisan cooperation and calling on the White House to take a hard approach.
Europe, or at least most of the major western European powers, are pushing for something lighter. David Cameron, Angela Merkel and others have made their opposition to Putin’s gambit clear, but Europe does not appear to want to push Russia as hard as the US does. The foreign ministers of France, Germany, Italy and Spain resisted calls for trade sanctions, instead focusing on freezing talks with Russia on visa liberalisation. Germany has said it will oppose any suggestions by the US to kick Russia out of the G8. And the UK, normally such a reliable ally for the US, has appeared to be drafting proposals to ensure the exemption of the City of London from any proposed sanctions, in order to maintain the attractiveness to Russian businessmen of London as a financial and social centre.
Ultimately it will fall to Obama to make the really hard decisions, and to lead the west’s response. He has tried to use diplomacy to resolve a wide range of foreign policy problems, including in dealings with Libya, Syria, and Iran, and even with the military drawdowns in Iraq and Afghanistan. While that might have brought him admirers in Europe, in the US he has faced substantial and ongoing criticism for the perceived failings of these diplomatic efforts. One of Obama’s first foreign policy initiatives after the 2008 election was a reset of the relationship with Russia. Since then, Putin has clamped down on human rights at home, and opposed the US on Syria and the wider Arab spring. It might be that this time Obama tries to use stick before carrot, even if Europe would prefer it otherwise.
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