The Spanish Socialist party is stuck in a nasty paradox: its main opponent, the People’s party – in power nationally as well as in most of the regions and important cities – is performing very poorly after two years in power, dropping 25 per cent in the polls, contending with extremely weak ratings for prime minister Mariano Rajoy, rising intraparty factionalism, and corruption scandals. But the PSOE is hardly benefitting: with just a year and a half to go until the next general election its electoral prospects remain modest.
The political reasons for this are easy to understand but hard to change in the short term. The PSOE is still paying the price for being the ruling party when the economic crisis started. But it is also paying for the increasingly widespread criticism of traditional politics and the dominance of the two-party system. Spanish voters are threatening an unprecedented electoral realignment in the next elections with almost 50 per cent saying they do not know who to vote for. Moreover, the secession debate in Catalonia is causing deep problems for the Socialist party of Catalonia, one of the strongest regional branches of Spanish socialism.
In this situation, there has been increasing demand within the PSOE to launch a primary election to select the party’s candidate for the Moncloa Palace next year. This is the aim of those trying to prevent party general secretary Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba from standing for the premiership again – but also of those wishing to see the party respond to the general call among citizens for a ‘new politics’.
In January the PSOE decided to organise an open primary election this coming November to select the prime ministerial candidate. Two months prior to that, in September, there will also be primaries to select the top candidates for the regional elections in May 2015. Likely candidates for the general election include the Basque former regional prime minister Patxi López, the former minister Carme Chacón or even Rubalcaba himself. Rubalcaba narrowly defeated Chacón for the PSOE leadership in 2012. The powerful Andalucian branch will have a big say in this fight, and could even decide to back its own candidate. In sum, a fiery autumn awaits the PSOE, unless Rajoy calls an early general election.
As other previous primaries show – such as the French Socialists’ 2006 member primary or that of the Italian Democrats in 2012 – such an initiative may not be enough to win an election, nor guarantee strong new leadership. However, the serious difficulties that the Spanish conservatives are experiencing offer a chance to their opponents, as we shall probably see in the next European elections, and the primaries could contribute decisively to gaining momentum.
After all, Rubalcaba – general secretary since February 2012 and a senior minister in the González and Zapatero cabinets – has nothing left to lose. Indeed, he may become the Spanish centre-left’s own Neil Kinnock. Like him, Rubalcaba does not know for certain he will become prime minister, but this may allow him to implement the strategic changes necessary if the PSOE wants to become again the leading majoritarian party in Spain.
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Juan Rodríguez Teruel is lecturer in political science at the University of Valencia
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