Buried under the not-so-shocking announcement that Boris Johnson will be standing as a member of parliament in 2015 lay a slightly more significant policy announcement by London’s mayor yesterday.
Reluctantly, and with the caveat that he continues to be a staunch Eurosceptic, his Europe report draws the conclusion that London is far better off in a reformed European Union than it would be going it alone.
The strapline of the report, that leaving or staying in is a ‘win-win situation’, fails to do justice to the report’s real conclusion: that leaving could do serious damage to London’s interests.
The only scenario in the report in which there is a ‘win’ associated with ‘Brexit’ is utterly implausible. It does not only depend on an unreformed EU but also on Britain negotiating perfectly amicable and advantageous exit conditions with our partners. Only in this doubly improbable situation could leaving be marginally advantageous for London.
But if we get negotiations wrong, the report notes, the City could lose 1.2 million jobs from leaving the EU. Such a scenario is risky at best.
Compare this with a situation in which our membership of a reformed EU would double London’s economy to £640bn and provide a further one million jobs in 20 years’ time and Johnson’s ‘win-win’ begins to look slightly more like ‘win-lose’.
The report’s fourth scenario sees Britain gain, but marginally less so, by a relationship with a totally unreformed EU. Unbeknown to Johnson until yesterday morning, this depiction is already somewhat passé.
As British Influence’s director, Peter Wilding, reminded Johnson in the Q&A that followed Johnson’s speech, the status quo is no longer an option. At the end of June all 28 EU member states signed up to a far-reaching agenda for reform over the next five years. Economic reform, an end to ‘ever-closer union’ and the completion of the single market are all now part of the EU’s mandate.
Much to Johnson’s apparent bewilderment, seven of the eight reforms his new report proposes are already on this agenda. His report therefore looks more like an endorsement of the EU’s current agenda than the sceptical clarion call he claimed to be issuing, questioning whether the necessary changes would be possible, let alone palatable to other member states.
But even discounting the recent reforms agreed, and despite Johnson playing up the much-touted EU red tape throughout his address, the report concludes that the vast majority of industries are at either medium or high risk if the United Kingdom were to withdraw from the single market and that there would be very little regulatory gains since ‘many regulations are enshrined in UK law and because there would be a need for regulations anyway from a UK perspective’.
Thus, Boris Johnson unwittingly unveiled a comprehensive study of the benefits of EU membership masquerading as a pragmatically Eurosceptic report. This is somewhat fitting for the launch of his election campaign, as noted by the Financial Times’ recent analysis that Euroscepticism is seemingly one of the key criteria for being a Conservative candidate in next year’s election.
Waking up to the change that is already happening in the EU remains the biggest barrier when trying to tackle the information deficit that continues to plague the UK-EU debate. A serious discussion about what remains an essential and progressive vehicle for prosperity, jobs and securing Britain’s role in the world might just bring us closer to a more legitimate relationship with the EU.
———————————
Rachel Franklin is research and campaign manager at British Influence. Find out more about the campaign to keep Britain in the EU here or follow the campaign on Twitter @britinfluence.
———————————
I do think it would be one of the biggest mistake our country would make, if we were to come out EUR, I am not really surprize with the Eurosceptic Boris Johnson.
Ask any Ken Livingstone: Boris is only interested in Boris. The joke is that this joker would get votes in a safe Tory seat like Kensington and Chelsea or Uxbridge. His downfall is his oversized ego and shallow depth ref. human empathy and understanding. He gives politicians a [worse] name. Dumb, Dumber then we have Boris – so he let’s us think! he is actually a very shrewd, manipulative and devious opponent, as I say, ask Ken.
Boris not only bluffing, he is trying to position himself for Leadership, He can not be trust. Dangerous than Ukip
It is typical of Boris Johnson that (knowing the audience he stood before) he commenced with a pretty good summary of some of the main benefits and achievements of the EU. Here is an extract –
“……. for 15 years after the fall of the wall, it was the EU that served as a beacon and an objective for Poland and other former communist countries. It was the EU’s insistence on market reforms that has transformed those economies, and helped provide the British speedway fan with the friendly cafes and prompt service, ice cream and all the stuff that you would not have expected under communism.
And as we, this week, mark a century since the outbreak of the First World War, we should reflect that for 70 or almost 70, of those 100 years, there has now been peace in western Europe, probably the longest uninterrupted absence of war since the days of the Antonine emperors; and of course there are probably all sorts of reasons for that peace –
the simple horror of the memory of the last war; you might cite the role of Nato, the triumph of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, I’m sure that will be top in your minds Bloomberg folk here this morning in facing down communist aggression; but somewhere in the mix we should surely give credit to Brussels for being a force for stability and economic integration… ”
Presumably he thinks that, having set out this stuff it is perfectly OK to completely ignore it in mouthing his breezy assurances that it is equally acceptable whether or not the UK continues to be a crucial and hopefully leading member of what he himself has acknowledged as a ground-breaking and historically beneficial organisation. He was – just as in making his completely self-serving and hypocritical announcement about his political ambitions – looking over the heads of his audience and speaking to the people at large. He knew what part of his remarks would be reported. What a fraud.
No jobs would be lost if we leave the eu. Don’t no what your worrying about the conservatives are pro eu just like the rest of them