Five things we learned during the independence referendum
1. People are interested in politics
When a notoriously unpleasant Hollywood producer died thousands of people turned out for his funeral. Quizzed by a fellow mourner as to why someone so unpopular should attract such a crowd, one wit quipped: ‘Give the public what they want …’
The theory that the public are alienated by politics has been disproved in the referendum campaign.
Given a big issue, the voters will read, listen, engage and debate. And, by all accounts, will turn out in droves.
The problem with politics as normal turns out not to be the characters but the content.
More big politics is what the public want. It’s a lesson for Westminster.
2. Negative politics works
The Scottish National party’s Project Smear had a big impact in reducing the poll lead that ‘No’ had held comfortably for almost all the campaign. The lie that the NHS – devolved entirely to the Scottish parliament – could only be protected from privatisation by independence was breathtaking both in its boldness and its untruthfulness. But it swept all before it. Fair play to the SNP who sanctimoniously offer themselves up as offering ‘positive’ politics – when they lie, they lie big. Ditto bullying.
Scottish Labour’s failure was not to fight fire with fire. When the allegation about the NHS was first made they should have unleashed medic after medic to rebut it. They should have fielded nurses, doctors, patients and union members in a sustained bombardment until the SNP gave up.
There is a saying in advertising: ‘How do you fight a man with a 12-foot spear? Don’t start with a six-foot one’. Better Together, and Scottish Labour, tried – and failed – to win the fight with a butter knife.
3. Myths matter
Thatcherism is dead and buried. Laid to rest by Tony Blair and New Labour who doubled spending on public services and restored not just the public realm but bipartisan support in a publicly funded NHS. But its ghost goes marching on.
The ‘Yes’ vote was mobilised primarily behind the proposition that Scotland needs to be protected from a politician who lost office nearly a quarter of a century ago.
It is quite an achievement. To succeed in gaining purchase it required a mind-wipe worthy of the Men in Black. This is 2014, not 1984, but the ‘Yes’ proposition was that Britain is both unreformed and unreformable. This a country in which Labour incorporated the ECHR into UK law, established a supreme court, introduced a national minimum wage, extended trade union rights, abolished the homophobic Section 28, brought peace to Northern Ireland, devolved power to Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and London. I could go on. But erasing the memory of this progressive legacy has been central to constructing the myth of the UK as a failed state.
4. Populism is sweeping Europe
The SNP surge is part of a European-wide phenomenon. The characteristics are: a privileging of the nation-state alone above all other calls on solidarity; a rejection of the establishment; a backlash against globalisation and its social and economic consequences. It is there in the far-right in Sweden – the Sweden Democrats – and in the French Front National. There’s a populism of the left – Podemos in Spain. And one of the centre-right – the SNP and the United Kingdom Independence party in the UK. All mobilising and channelling rage against the way things are done. Ready to tear up the economic and social consensus – though all unclear about what successful economic programme would or could replace the status quo.
This has a long way to run.
5. Old-fashioned campaigning isn’t dead
The stars of the show on the ‘No’ side were three unlikely comrades: Blairite Jim Murphy; radical MP George Galloway; and former prime minister Gordon Brown.
They all reached the electorate and moved hearts and minds, but not by any newfangled social media. Instead they did the most old-fashioned thing imaginable – they went out on the stump.
For Murphy it was 100 towns, villages and cities in 100 days. Speaking on an impromptu platform of two Irn-Bru crates.
For Galloway it was town hall meetings. Initially ones for which audiences were charged – yet there was full house after full house. Early signs of his success came when his bookings were quietly unbooked by SNP councils. An early sign of ‘Yes’ dislike of free speech. His success was capped by a joint rally with Gordon Brown.
Brown did the Old Labour circuit. Miners’ welfare clubs and tenants association halls. Holding the audience in the palm of his hand he wove visions of a better Scotland transformed within the union.
That old-time religion still has a lot of life in it.
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John McTernan is former political secretary at 10 Downing Street and was director of communications for former prime minister of Australia Julia Gillard. He writes The Last Word column on Progress and tweets @johnmcternan. This piece was also published here.
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Where do we go from here? Abolish the Barnett Formula, for a start. And make sure that whatever the conurbations got, then so did the counties – http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/09/19/gordon-browns-plan-wont-work-we-need-to-scrap-barnett-and-allocate-funding-based-on-need/
Great piece. Jim Murphy should get a knighthood.
Chris Whitehouse
http://www.whitehouseconsulting.co.uk
Everyone has it in for the Barnett formula which few understand. Essentially a mechanism for equitable distribution of resources according to need. No formula is perfect, so it can be improved I am sure, but if you move from formula-based resource allocation what is the alternative? Project-based resource allocation is fine for projects, but involves subjective judgement by ministers or civil servants, whether in London or Scotland. Allocation of resources disregarding area need means some wealthy areas may get resources their needs don’t justify and other areas not getting resources their needs require. In Scotland it us the Scottish Parliament that allocates resources between local authorities so the Scots should not be blaming the Barnett formula if they don’t like its outcomes. One lesson from all this is that there is nothing so powerful as a chip on the shoulder, blaming others for decisions within your own control.
But the good news of this Neverendum is that the high voter registration and hopefully the high voter turnout may wash over to May 2015 and hopefully will result in a swingeing rejection of LibDems and Tories in Scotland and with them the SNP to boot; with Labour rather than SNP MPs back in May 2010 the negotiations in those 5 Days in May 2010 might have enabled a Labour-leaning rainbow coalition rather than a Victorian economics Tory-led one.
Oh, and remind me what was Goregous George Galloway’s contribution to all this? No comrade of the Labour Party, thank you!