There is a lot that needs fixing within the British economy. But today’s autumn statement will not deal with that. Instead it will be about the Tories’ general election strategy and targeting sweeteners at an ageing electorate in a selected number of seats.
The electorate, however, is a lot more canny than the Tories give them credit. People spot that you cannot have austerity and a spending spree at the same time.
So expect a smokescreen of positive figures. Unemployment down, employment up, wages up, the fastest growing economy in the G7.
What we will not hear is:
• Government borrowing is expected to exceed even the Office of Budget Responsibility’s March predictions, and is running at more than twice the 2010 targets.
• The debt-to-GDP ratio has been consistently higher than the 2010 targets and is still rising.
• Economic growth is fragile, and we lost one per cent to austerity.
• Spending on economic failure is increasing, with social security spending £25bn higher than planned in 2010.
• Tax revenue has flagged – partly the result of low wages. After falling for four years, earnings are now creeping up for some workers in some sectors, but barely matching inflation, even after a year of growth.
People know the economic recovery is benefiting only a minority. A Populus survey conducted for the Financial Times showed that a net 20 per cent of people do not think that the economy is working for Britain as a whole, a net 35 per cent do not think it is working for them or their families, while a net 60 per cent think it is only working for people who are already comfortably off.
And then there will be the spending commitments: for the ageing electorate an NHS spending boost, including a small fund for dementia research and pension reform, infrastructure spending for the marginals, flood defences for their core vote, and some regional funding to try to make themselves look like one nation Tories.
But the 2015 electorate is more sceptical. Out door knocking on Sunday in Northampton I spoke to an elderly woman, infirm and housebound, a traditional Tory voter, who said: ‘I see they are planning to spend another £2bn on the NHS. I do not know where they think they will get the money from.’
The answer is redirected savings from elsewhere in the NHS budget. Just like the much-vaunted potholes fund was last year – topsliced off the local authorities roads budget.
This autumn statement should be part of creating a high-skilled, high-wage, outward-looking economy that extends opportunities and spreads benefits. Instead it will be an attempt by a deeply divided government to conceal the extent of its failures and buy its way through the election.
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Sally Keeble is a former minister and former member of the Treasury select committee. She is Labour’s parliamentary candidate for Northampton North and she tweets @Sally_Keeble
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