Here in the United Kingdom the formation of the next government, and possible different permutations of coalition, could decide the future course of the country. The same is true of Moldova, a small and troubled post-Soviet country, nestled between Ukraine and Romania, and similarly with Russian troops stationed in the breakaway region of Transnistria. It has been moving towards Europe but has remaining ties to Russia, and it has just seen a fork-in-the-road general election.
2014’s election was a battle of ideas between a European future and a retreat back to the days of Russian influence. There are three pro-European Union parties: the social democrat PDM led by Marian Lupu, the centre-right PLDM which boasts Moldova’s most recent prime minister Iurie Leanca, and the Liberal party, the most junior partner in the last governing coalition. On the other side the relatively new pro-Russian Socialist party, the more moderate Communists who governed Moldova for eight years to 2009 and who are still led by a former president Vladimir Voronin, and ‘Patria’ (Homeland): a new populist rising led by a demagogue Renato Usatii who made his vast personal fortune in Russia. The Socialists and Patria campaigned with strong populist messages on ending corruption and cutting EU ties to join Vladimir Putin’s Eurasian Customs Union. Some even went as far as to use images of Putin on their campaign posters.
Despite the Socialist party winning a plurality of votes, the clear overall verdict was for a European future. Pro-EU parties won a small majority of the 101 seats in parliament, PDM increased their share of the vote and seats, but not by enough to be the largest of the pro-EU parties this time.
It took 54 days of negotiating to reach the first coalition agreement: ‘Alliance for a European Moldova’, a minority government of PLDM and PDM which will likely choose Leanca to be prime minister again, but contain no less than eight PDM ministers involved in economic affairs, labour, transport and others. There were many reports of frustration and difficulty in getting the Liberals to join, who were said to have demanded full control of some of Moldova’s most important ministries. Even a remarkable intervention from a former British Liberal Democrat MEP among other figures has – at the time of writing – failed to convince all three pro-EU parties to work together, and just yesterday the parliament failed to elect a prime minister.
There is another possibility. A PLDM-PDM coalition may yet be backed by an unwritten trust and support agreement with the Communists until the Liberals come back on board at least. A speaker for parliament: PDM’s Andrian Candu, was already elected with support of some Communist MPs and this has led many in the media to speculate that such an agreement has already been reached. However, securing the votes to re-elect the coalition’s Leanca as prime minister will be a far more difficult challenge. Failure to do so will lead to another general election, giving a second chance to the pro-Russian parties waiting in the wings. .
Beyond the ideological tug-of-war there is a simple truth that Moldovans just want a better, more stable life. Forming a government when there is no clear winner takes patience. However, when the alternative to governing is giving power to ideologues bent on turning back the clock with reckless plans, social democrats have a duty to their people to find a way to govern. Small country, difficult times.
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Ana Formusatii is a young social democrat and political activist from Moldova