This is the pace of things in DC. One election is barely over, and the next has already begun. It is only three months since the midterms, and the new Republican-dominated Congress has just taken its oath, but all the talk is of 2016. The general election, which will pit the Democrat nominee against their Republican counterpart, will be on 8 November. The speculation now is who will win their party’s nomination in the primaries and caucuses which kick off next January.
For the Democrats, for now at least, Hillary Clinton is the main name in the frame. There will undoubtedly be challengers, but currently the only formal candidates are conspiracy theorist Jeff Boss, would-be-Monster-Raving-Loony Vermin Supreme, and a former university football coach called Robby Wells. You really don’t need to remember any of those names!
There are some other potential challengers: Martin O’Malley, until recently governor of my adopted home state of Maryland, has charisma and solid credentials, but will likely be seen as too much of a taxation fanatic (by US standards). Jim Webb is a Virginian senator who comes from a long, proud Scotch-Irish heritage (and wrote an excellent book on this history of his people, Born Fighting); he is arguably the only Democratic candidate who could make head roads into the Appalachian vote. Joe Biden, the current vice-president, is an obvious potential candidate, but though he is very popular within the Democratic party he is infamous for his Prince Philip-eque foot-in-mouth tendencies.
Then there is New York governor Andrew Cuomo (too liberal), John Kerry (too tied to the current administration), plus a handful of senators none of whom have wide national recognition. Two leftfield candidates, neither of whom has publicly expressed any remote interest, are Al Gore and George Clooney, but the former is seen as too divisive, and as for the latter, well, can anyone seriously imagine an actor in the White House?!
The Republican competition is much more interesting, as there are a number of real heavyweights in the line-up, and the field also gives the best insight into the medium-term future of American politics. Mitt Romney has ruled himself out, but a number of household names have made clear their intention to make a run.
Top of the pile is Jeb Bush, son of George (president #41) and brother of George W (#43). If Jeb wins the presidency it will be the first time that three members of the same family have held the position, but it is not so unusally nepotistic as that might at first appear. John Adams (#2) was the father of John Quincy Adams (#6). William Harrison (#9) was the grandfather of Benjamin Harrison (#23). James Madison (#4) and Zachary Taylor (#12) were cousins. And Franklin Roosevelt (#32) was related by blood or marriage to eleven other presidents. One study even claims that all but one of the United States’ 44 presidents is related in some way to King John, the arch-nemesis of Robin Hood. Yes, that includes Barack Obama (#44).
Latest reports suggest Jeb has managed to raise significantly more money than all of his rivals for the Republican nomination. He has likely benefitted more than most from Romney dropping out of the race. He already has an extensive donor network, he has demonstrated solid governance while running Florida, and he is seen as pragmatic and even liberal by Republican standards. His stance on immigration in particular marks him as a moderate, though that will count both for and against him as he seeks the nomination.
Chris Christie, the Boris Johnson of American politics and governor of New Jersey, is arguably his closest challenger, though a combination of gaffes and scandals threatens to undermine his case. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky is liberal on social issues and a fiscal conservative – to say the least – on economics; as such he appeals to a wide spectrum, but not to the Republican base. Ted Cruz, the junior senator from Texas, is the leading Tea party candidate: he is pro-life, pro-gun, anti-NSA, anti-net neutrality, anti-environment, extremely naïve on foreign policy, and a vocal supporter of the ‘47 per cent’ (a synonym for the rich, as made famous by Romney in the 2012 campaign). Marco Rubio, the junior senator from Florida, is a Cuban-American, which could help him grab a good chunk of the Latino vote, considered critical for any Republican candidate who wants a chance of winning the general election in November 2016. Rubio is pro-life, believes that climate change – if it is happening at all – is not due to human activity, and has very strong backing from the Tea party (second only to Cruz).
Over the past decade US politics and society has become increasingly polarised. The end of the golden economic era of the 1990s, combined with 9/11 and all that has come in its wake, have pushed Americans to extremes of liberalism and bigotry, and of blaming either the poor or the rich for the state of society. The 2016 election looks set to up the ante even further. Democrat candidates will be pulled to the left, Republicans to the right. A Hillary vs Jeb contest would be the preferential outcome for all those who want to see a more united America. A Cruz vs O’Malley contest, on the other hand, would offer a truer test for democracy, but not one which would likely have a positive outcome for the US, or for the world.