Labour continues to reel from one of its worst general election performances in Wales in decades, while the Conservatives can still justifiably celebrate one of their strongest.
Publicised losses in Gower and the Vale of Clwyd, in addition to the failure to retake the Vale of Glamorgan and Cardiff North are ultimately signs of pervasive Labour weakness more than they are of recent Conservative ascendancy.
The Conservative vote remains strongest in a handful of heavily Anglicised regions with high proportions of ABC1 workers. However Welsh Labour can no longer rely on diluted tribal loyalty in a number of increasingly marginal constituencies. The party needs to update its policy platform to remain competitive in these seats. If it fails to craft an appealing message for these wavering voters soon then Gower may yet be a bellwether for Labour’s fortunes in Wales.
The immediate risk comes from a combined Ukip-Plaid Cymru insurgency in Labour’s traditional heartlands. Ukip slashed Labour majorities in the Fort Knox of safe seats in the Valleys, proving that the road facing the proverbial donkey with a red rosette is steeper than ever. Ukip’s comprehensive performance is the canary in the electoral coalmine. It occurred even with greater tactical voting and a turnout model considerably more charitable to Labour than next year’s Welsh Assembly elections will be. Based on recent projections, Ukip is likely to gain 7 list seats. While Plaid’s performance on 7 May was undistinguished within the constituency vote, with reduced tactical voting and the return of dual candidacy, it is not inconceivable that Ukip will siphon off sufficient Labour votes to deliver a Plaid victory in deep red seats.
Labour’s challenge in Wales is primarily one of policy rather than organisation, though improvements must be made in the latter field as well. The magnitude of the nationwide trend against the party likely made losses in key marginals irremediable by even the most effective ground game imaginable. As Cardiff North candidate Mari Williams identifies, public scepticism of Labour’s economic credibility was the most significant variable in this trend.
Welsh Labour must actively address this in policy terms, while accepting that the terms of the debate will still be set by Westminster. Criticising unfair but inevitable attacks on Welsh public services can not be a substitute for modernising the services so many in Wales rely upon. This strategy cannot simply be a reflexive rejection of either current government policy or of New Labour policies circa 2001. There needs to be an open debate on every aspect of Welsh party policy, shorn of ideological red lines and groupthink.
There are promising signs here. The Welsh government has jettisoned its opposition to league tables and has moved to give patients detailed information on individual hospitals. It is time to take this further by providing the public with real choices to make with this information. Choice in primary care could be promoted by relaxing the boundaries of GP surgeries, for instance, while Welsh Labour’s longstanding opposition to academy schools could be reconsidered.
Organisationally, the party must adopt a permanent campaign and increase contact rates – even in traditional safe seats – where a sense of being taken for granted has served as fuel to the Ukip fire. More accurate voter identification is a prerequisite, so that uncommitted and undecided voters are not coded as ‘dedicated’ Labour supporters by over-optimistic campaigners early in the campaign and that scarce resources in the final days and weeks can be delegated appropriately.
Ultimately, the electoral map of Wales on 6 May next year is likely to be multi-coloured, it is Labour’s choice whether it is a lighter red or deep purple with dashes of green and blue.
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Gareth Williams is a member of Progress
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