On Monday the nominating stage of the Labour leadership race came to an end and we now know the overall shape of the race. Three people who have a realistic chance of becoming leader of the Labour party made it through. Jeremy Corbyn did also.

I’m writing this prior to the Newsnight hustings, so things could have shifted overnight, but as things stand my reading of the race is this:

Andy Burnham has grabbed an early lead and held onto it, but has never really managed to break away.

Yvette Cooper has given a better than expected performance. She started slowly but rose steadily and ran Burnham close in the nominations. The dark horse of the race but her momentum is building.

Liz Kendall has had strong start and has certainly defined a clear offer. Made it on the ballot easily enough but needs to do more to broaden her support.

Jeremy Corbyn got onto the ballot.

What happens next could get interesting, although it involves explaining Labour Party procedures, so bear with me. Constituency Labour parties begin to declare their supporting nominations. Between now and 31 July each local Labour party will call a special meeting and vote to decide which, if any, of the candidates they want to publicly support.

At this point it is worth noting that because only a small fraction of the membership will actually turn up to these meetings, they are no guarantee of what the final result will be. But they could be the best guide we get between now and 12 September.

Under the old electoral college system, made up of members of parliament, party members, and trade unions and affiliates, that Labour previously used to select its leader, the number of MPs supporting a candidate meant a lot more than the number of CLPs supporting them. Because MP’s counted for more than a third of the final vote, a candidate without significant backing from the parliamentary Labour party simply could not win overall.

This meant that MPs were not only able to control the shortlist but also to a large extent the shape of the contest. It is for this reason that 2010 quickly became a two horse race between the Miliband brothers, because they received the bulk of support from MPs.

This cannot happen now because under the new system MPs’ votes carry the same weight as any ordinary member’s. Once a candidate has got the 35 votes they need to get onto the ballot, their level of support in the PLP only really counts for building momentum. What matters overall is how members and supporters vote in the final ballot and PLP nominations are no longer any real bearing on that.

So while it looks like Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper are leading the race at the moment, the truth is we do not really know. They way CLPs nominate could give us a slightly better idea.

Each of the candidates will be approaching these nominations in slightly different ways.

Andy Burnham will be hoping that by racking up a big lead in CLP nominations he can regain the sense of inevitability which surrounded the early part of his leadership bid, when he quickly built up a lead amongst MPs, but then lost when Yvette Cooper closed the gap to just 9 after a slow start.

For Yvette Cooper, building on her current momentum will be crucial. She needs to demonstrate that the broad support she gained from the PLP actually exists in the wider membership and if she can better Burnham’s total at this stage then she will blow the race wide open. With Shelia Murphy in charge, her campaign certainty has the best organisational talent around, but whether Cooper really does have as much support from the grassroots as she does with MPs is yet to be seen.

Carrying the ‘Blairite’ tag means Liz Kendall has perhaps the trickiest task of all the main candidates and could face a make or break moment. While getting fewer MP nominations than both Burnham and Cooper at this stage is not fatal, without a strong showing in the CLP section, her campaign would lack serious momentum and face genuine questions about her viability. So far early feedback from members has been positive, which will please her team.  However, I would still be surprised if she was able to better Andy Burnham’s total.

If I were Kendall’s campaign I would already be looking to shift the goalposts and ruthlessly prioritise CLPs in southern and midlands marginals and seats in Scotland. That way even if she falls just short of Burnham or Cooper’s totals, she will be able to claim that she performed the best in the places that it matters most – the seats labour needs to win in 2020.

Whichever way CLPs vote by the end of July we will at least have a better sense of which way the leadership race is moving. My sense from talking to members is that many are still undecided about who to support and feel this is going to be a long, attritional – but hopefully not dull – campaign which lasts the distance. Plenty more to come yet then.

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Rich Durber is a former speechwriter for a shadow minister and writes a fortnightly column for Progress. He tweets @richdurber

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Photo: rachel_pics