‘You have to realise how much people elsewhere do not like London.’ The admonishment from a frontbencher during the general election campaign explains some of the findings in Lewis Baston’s report ‘Is southern discomfort spreading?’.

Although we are rightly proud of our electoral record in London, as Baston shows, there is something of a political gap opening between the capital and its Midlands hinterland.

Many people in the towns of the south Midlands are incomers who moved out to Northampton, Milton Keynes, Stevenage and elsewhere to get away from London.

Some moved out of council flats on inner city estates blighted by high unemployment, crime and dysfunction to take a house with a garden, a job and prospects in a new town. Or they opted for long distance commuting to give their kids an easier life than they would experience in the big cities.

Either way it was an emphatic statement about lifestyle and aspiration. And either way the personal also became political – Labour was something people left behind.

The party has had a struggle to prove itself in these areas, which is what New Labour was all about, nailing memories of loony leftism, and aligning the party with the hard-working, socially responsible community ethic. Now the New Labour era is over, it is back to business as usual, and Lewis Baston’s perceptive study sets out what that looks like.

Southern Discomfort charted, controversially at the time, the gulf that had opened between Labour and voters in the south east. Bastion finds that the fault–line has shifted. Labour’s position in London and parts of the south east has improved, although in the latter case it is from an abysmally low base.

Instead, he argues, the discomfort with Labour has spread more widely through south Midlands towns with two major characteristics:

  • These are places that escaped the cliff edge of economic recession, but have also not seen the economic improvements people might have wished. House price and wage inflation have been lower than in the big cities. There is a sense that socialism is for the metropolitan elite.
  • They are also places that have not seen the social change of the big cities, especially London: Baston confirms the overlap of ethnic diversity and propensity to vote Labour, although other studies have found that the link is weaker than in the past.

Baston observes that the changes pose threats and opportunities for Labour – provided the party knows how to take advantage of the latter. And although his pamphlet stops at that point, there are some important tests coming up.

One is next year’s London mayoral election – a vital test of our new leader’s electoral appeal. We need to go into that with a “One Nation” message – the inclusive slogan that was one of Miliband’s few positives. In appealing to the mobile, edgy London electorate, we must not accentuate the political gulf between London and rest of country, and box ourselves into the capital.

But before that is the matter of the leadership. We need to ensure our new leader can straddle the aspirations of both the metropolitans and the Midlanders and that our party has the policies to match. Voters on the new fault–line of discomfort with Labour will not be impressed if we knock on their doors with a politics they thought they had left behind.

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Sally Keeble is a former minister and former member of the Treasury select committee. She tweets @Sally_Keeble

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