Lewis Baston Articles

Public opinion, at least in terms of voting intention, has been unusually stable during this parliament. There has barely been any change in the main parties’ ratings since the middle of 2013, when Labour’s lead over the Conservatives narrowed and Ukip support...

Labour has had quite a good month in the polls. The party’s share has edged up since mid-October, from the neighbourhood of 37 per cent to something more like 39-40 per cent, while the Conservatives may have softened a bit over the last couple of weeks in particular....

The usual pattern for opinion polling over conference season is that each party gets a shortlived bump in support stemming from their conference, but the effect vanishes quickly and within a couple of weeks of the end of the Conservative conference the parties’ poll...

The new territory of a fixed-term parliament means Labour should hold its nerve as 2015 draws near, writes Lewis Baston In years gone by, the fourth party conference season of a parliament would have been heavy with speculation about the timing of the next election....