Perched on the sofa in his well-appointed room in the Cabinet Office, Alan Milburn focuses on the likely shape of the forthcoming campaign. He seems keenly aware of the differences between this election and those in 1997 and 2001. Not only will Labour be fighting with all the advantages (and disadvantages) of several years’ incumbency. It will also be the first general election in Britain fought in the shadow of the ‘war on terror’ and the on-going situation in Iraq. This, says Milburn, will inevitably have an impact on the way in which the election is conducted.
‘If you look at elections around the world, whether it’s Australia or America or Spain, they are basically being fought on two big themes. One is security and the other is opportunity. Traditionally, the right has taken one and the left has taken the other, but we live in changed times. Nowadays, to win – as you saw in America – you have got to take both.’
For Milburn, the issue of security ‘is as much about antisocial behaviour in the community as it is about the threat of terror globally’. He denies, however, that Labour is seeking to play ‘the politics of fear’ at the next election. For him, it is about addressing the concerns of ordinary voters.
‘This is not about outflanking the Tories, it’s about connecting with people’s concerns. Certainly in my own constituency now, the biggest concerns raised by constituents are about crime and antisocial behaviour. I think what has happened is that a lot of those economic issues – the pounds in people’s pockets, whether they have a job – are a lot better, so people’s attention turns to quality of life issues, and you can’t ignore that.’
The chancellor of the duchy of Lancaster accepts that the war in Iraq will inevitably be an issue at the ballot box. However, given the problems currently faced by the allies with the Iraqi insurgency, his response is perhaps surprisingly assertive: ‘I think that we have got to approach this with far more confidence than sometimes we’ve shown. I mean, it’s right to acknowledge that it’s been an issue that has been difficult – indeed divisive – in the country. But equally we should be robust about having got into Iraq and having started the job we have to finish it.’
‘Britain,’ he says, ‘is not a nation of quitters.’ He believes that ‘the vast majority of people, whatever their views on Iraq and the reasons for going to war, know that there is a job that needs doing to help the Iraqi people. Our troops are there, they’re doing a great job and we’ve got to finish that off, and I think that is the right position to be in.’
Of course, the next election will not revolve exclusively around the issue of security. The ‘bread and butter’ issues of health, education and the economy will continue to matter to voters. Milburn is confident of the government’s record in these areas, and singles out Gordon Brown’s stewardship of the economy for particular praise: ‘There is no doubt in my mind that the economy is our ace card. We’ve got two million more people in work… we’ve got mortgages cheaper than for 30 or 40 years and we’ve got an economy now bigger than Italy or France… I remember when ministers got demonstrations about jobs and you don’t hear about that any more.’
However, he is anxious that Labour should not rest on its laurels. He is particularly concerned that the party should present the electorate with a clear choice at the ballot box. ‘The danger for us is that the election becomes a referendum on the government and not a battle between the parties, which is what it should be,’ he says.
Incumbency, Milburn believes, is the main barrier to Labour getting its message across at the next election. With incumbency, inevitably ‘doubts and disappointments accrue’. This has led to ‘a greater level of cynicism and a lower level of engagement’ amongst the voting public. To overcome this barrier, Labour has to promote policies that will have a direct and positive impact on the lives of ordinary people.
‘What you’ve got to be able to do through your forward policy is connect with the way people live their lives, hence the focus on issues such as childcare, jobs, pensions, health, crime and education. You’ve got to inspire people that this is all about reassembling a New Labour coalition.’
He also believes that the next election campaign will need to be ‘much more localised and much more personalised than previous campaigns’. He is enthusiastic about new campaign techniques such as direct mail and the internet, and sees lessons for Labour in the Republicans’ success in the American presidential election.
‘There was a huge effort there in the so-called ground campaign, to win at a very, very local level. There was a bigger shift of resources to the local campaign. And I think there are some important lessons for us to learn there in what we do.’
Milburn does not dwell long on the electoral threat posed by the Conservatives. Perhaps this is unsurprising, given Michael Howard’s apparent failure to revive their fortunes. No doubt with the Brent East and Leicester by-election defeats in mind, however, Milburn gives short shrift to disheartened Labour voters who may be tempted to vote Liberal Democrat at the next election.
‘It’s just too cosy and comfortable right now for people who voted Labour in the past to just think, “well, they’re going to win anyway, therefore I’ll go out and vote for the Liberals.” So one of the jobs that Labour has is to discomfort Labour voters from thinking of voting for the Liberals – in exactly the same way that at one time we had to discomfort Labour voters who were going to vote Nationalist in Scotland and Wales.’
The party’s campaign co-ordinator accepts, however, that Labour has its work cut out, if it is to achieve the same political coalition and level of endorsement at the next election as it did in 1997: ‘We have got a high level of people who identify with Labour. The gap is between those who identify with Labour and those who are intending to vote Labour. So what we have got to do is bring people back to New Labour.’
Labour can do this, Milburn believes, by reconnecting with its core values. He sees an opening in Britain’s forthcoming presidency of the G8: ‘This is a huge opportunity for us to do good in the world. It’s going to be a big worldwide campaign looking at poverty in Africa and I want people to think that this is what a Labour government stands for.’
As the interview draws to a close, he begins to look at his watch, a habit to which he has no doubt become more accustomed since he reversed his decision in 2002 to leave the government and spend more time with his family. Perhaps he is contemplating the ‘swirl of events and meetings’ before him that he says characterises the life of a government minister (‘It’s much nicer out’, he says, only half-jokingly). How has the time he spent outside the cabinet affected his attitude to his current job?
‘The most important thing is that it allows you to get time to think and to talk to people – families, constituents, your own family – about what the issues really are. Politics only works when it is connected to the people. Otherwise you get politics in one place, you get the public in another, and in that contest there can be only one winner.’