The race between the remaining Democrats for the nomination to be the world’s most powerful figure is getting tighter than anyone expected. Having just returned from swing-state Missouri and neighbouring Kansas, what seems phenomenal is the momentum that has swung behind Obama. Young people have been coming out in their droves to support him.
Super Tuesday and subsequent states have tipped that balance putting Obama only 28 delegates behind the former First Lady. Young people are actively winning it for him – those putting in the hours are overwhelmingly young, the energy in his campaign is infectious and the youth vote is not just turning out in primaries but delivering the caucuses, energetically arguing the case for their candidate.
The American people are hungry for change – they want Bush out, their strong (Bill Clinton) economy back and pride in their way of life. As Obama put it himself, ‘its time to turn the page and write a new chapter.’
It is hard to tell if the Republicans are as anti-Bush as they suggest or whether it is for short-term electoral gain. The moderates quickly backed McCain leaving Gulliani out of the race and the Christian right has thankfully splintered. Yet their lack of discipline to get their candidate selected has united in holding their party to ransom. McCain is flip-flopping on immigration and tax cuts to reassure them but this will only see them ask for more. Their demands are irrational, impractical and extreme. If McCain wants to maintain his American-hero-hard-nut attitude he needs to turn his back on the right and use his time with the independents because as much as the right threaten him they have nowhere else to go. Unless they want a real (pro-choice) liberal in the White House.
My personal preference is of course that the Republicans tear themselves apart. Their divisions are massive, the factions are armed and the wounds could be deep. But we surely all agree that if a Republican gets in the White House it has to be McCain.
The Democrats must not follow the same path – what we progressives have to lose is far too great! Both candidates have positive policies on heath care, public education and ‘moral’ issues. Though polling on the candidates worries me greatly – Clinton has a 48 per cent disapproval rating compared to Obama’s mere 17 cent. This already works against the Democrats (particularly Hillary) – being divided may be a deathly blow.
A decision before the convention is ideal but I fear the price is too high, particularly for the Clintons. The state-assigned delegates may be just too close to call leaving the decision to the super-delegates – establishment figures. This may deliver the nomination for Clinton (which I do not object to in itself) but will definitely turn off the millions of young people who have finally got off the behinds and engaged in the process to back Obama. I fear this may cost the Democrats a generation of disappointment – too high a price to pay if progressives wish to dominate the 21st century.