I am a Ken fan. Always have been, most probably always will be. I think the Labour party can forgive me for once supporting ‘Ken’s right to stand’ and my Yorkshire constituency can forgive me for being brought up in London and having most of my family there. I do not know of one other single living person who has done more for Londoners than Ken. It is amazing to think that my younger brother gets free public transport to and from school. When I was growing up I would have to pay. I often decided to walk without telling my parents so that I could use the money for my teenage weekend frivolities.
So what did we make of the Newsnight Mayoral debate? I thought Ken was true to form. He set out his record and his priorities with confidence and humility. Boris, or ‘Mr Johnson’ as the media say we Labourites now refer to him, ran out of reasoning on his views on crime very quickly. He could not come up with a figure for inappropriately reintroducing routemasters and he seemed very much like he had been briefed not to smile. He looked overly serious and like he was going to break out into hysterics at any point. He reminded me of what a drugged horse would look like at a fudged horse race. This is because when Johnson smiles, he cannot be taken seriously and the façade of a man with convictions and guts fades away more quickly than the colour changing properties of a 1990s global hyper-colour t-shirt. Brian Paddick was also there.
Some weeks ago, I met a policy adviser for Johnson over a beer. Not mentioning names, they said they though Johnson could not win. They were hoping for a gift in the polls and they mentioned that sometimes they did feel optimistic. I have no idea what they think now but it is worrying that a joke candidate could be anywhere close to winning. According to ICM/Guardian, Ken is on 49 per cent and Mr Johnson on 51 per cent after second preferences. Since the debate, Ipsos-MORI puts Mr Johnson on 40 per cent and Ken on 41 per cent after second preferences.
I think two major factors will influence the outcome of this knife-edge election. The first is of course second preferences. Ken has pulled a blinder by doing a deal with the Greens. This erodes the Tory green credentials. If I was working on Ken’s campaign I would target green voters with ‘vote red, go green’ leaflets. In the debate Ken also held his hand out in friendship to Labour’s Lib Dem cousins. Sadly the gesture was not reciprocated. The second factor is media coverage. Ken is reliable on the camera and in the press. You know what you are getting. Johnston is a bumbling fool and many people forget this. The anti-Ken mob needs to be convinced to stay at home. The way of doing this is to expose Johnson to as much media as possible. Get him by himself without advisers. Like on Newsnight, the outcome is incoherent, bumbling and his relative poll rating drops compared to Ken.
I hope Ken will win and I think Ken will win. However, the Tories are close. In many ways this is old-fashioned class war. Much like Hammersmith and Fulham, poor north versus rich south. I was an agent in Hammersmith in 2006 when the local Tory Taliban (Thatcherite fundamentalists) donned their light blue rosettes and espoused the name of Cameron. It reminded me of Tudor times when Catholics openly converting to C of E but still practiced their own religion. They won. What would be the outcome of Mayor Johnson? I think you would have a larger Hammersmith and Fulham and this isn’t worth the paper it is printed on. A few pence back in council tax for a whole raft of cuts, cuts and more cuts. One Labour supporter in Hammersmith said to their Tory neighbour, ‘I expect you are pleased with your few pence tax cut’. He replied ‘what the fuck am I supposed to do with a few pence? I want my streets cleaned properly, not them ignored and a few pence back”. I think this is a lesson for us all.
Moreover Labour can take comfort in the fact that Cameron’s Tories are in a lose-lose situation. If Mr Johnson loses, Cameron’s Tories are not on track in London. And if Mr Johnson wins … er … the Tories have to put up with Boris.
James Alexander is Labour’s parliamentary candidate for York Outer and blogs at time4change.wordpress.com