A capacity crowd on the scale of a Manchester United home game
turned out in Oregon on Sunday to see Barack Obama speak ahead of this
week’s primary. It has been widely reported that he focused almost
exclusively on Republican nominee, John McCain, and barely mentioned
Hillary Clinton. He is already spending time visiting general election
swing states while the US media have already declared game over. So
what has Clinton achieved by staying in it?
There are four theories. The first is that she is attempting to
destabilize Obama’s campaign to give herself the best shot of running
in 2012. By repeatedly talking about Obama’s inexperience and lack of
substance, the theory goes, she will write McCain’s election script and
hand him victory. After three defeats in a row, there would not be a
single Democrat in the country who would begrudge her a chance next
time.
Second, some suggest she is angling (and should be given) the
vice-presidential nomination. By winning blue-collar states like
Pennsylvania and Ohio, she has shown that she can help secure the
presidency. The ‘dream ticket’ is popular with voters and especially
with some Democrat bosses who fear Clinton supporters staying at home
if Obama wraps up the nomination. In this role she could work
diligently on healthcare reform and other pet projects while leaving
the high-level foreign policy and economic brief to Obama.
Third, there is the possibility that she wants to take the position
of senate majority leader from Harry Reid. Whatever happens in the
presidential election, the Democrats are widely expected to increase
their majorities in both houses of Congress. The jury is out on Reid’s
performance since the midterm election and Clinton’s ongoing display of
gutsy determination may be enough to convince her colleagues that she
is perfect for this key brokering role.
Finally, she may just believe she can win. Although Obama is only
115 (out of over 4000) delegates away from winning, he is unlikely to
get this before the Democratic National Convention meets in late August
unless Clinton pulls out. The five remaining primaries will not prove
conclusive and there is little incentive for the roughly 200 undeclared
superdelegates (party bigwigs who get 20 per cent of the Convention
vote) to show their hand now when their leverage for plum positions
will only increase.
So working on the basis that Clinton stays in the race until the
convention, what could show up? On 31 May, a meeting will decide
whether to give the 313 delegates from Michigan and Florida a vote at
the Convention (currently banned because those states flouted election
rules). Their inclusion would pretty much erode Obama’s current lead.
Although he appears to have seized the initiative after a very poor
April, Obama may face further embarrassment over his personal ties to
rogue priests and slumhouse swindlers.
Finally, if Clinton demolishes Obama in Kentucky and Puerto Rico
while holding her own in Montana, South Dakota and Oregon, she may just
be able to claim a majority of actual votes. This would belittle
Obama’s argument that superdelegates should vote with the majority from
the primary election. However unlikely this scenario may seem, there
have been enough twists and turns in this election not to be certain of
anything.