On a recent trip back to London I was struck by the number of people who saw the conclusion of the Democratic primary as the final act of the American election, as though it was just a matter of Obama seeing out the next five months and being anointed leader of the free world.
If only it were that easy. Unlike France, the President of the United States is not elected by a popular vote. Instead, a system loosely based on our own ‘first-past-the post’ requires candidates to amass electoral college votes by winning a plurality in individual states. There are 538 votes up for grabs, allocated proportionally to state size (for example, California has 55 while Delaware has just three).
As many will remember, both Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 were just one large state away from winning their elections. Infamously, Bush won Florida by 537 votes and an unknown number of hanging chads; Ohio was relinquished by a shave over 2 per cent.
In 2008, many are predicting that Obama will face an uphill struggle to win either of these. His controversial announcement (now partially rescinded) that he would negotiate with Ahmadinejad and Castro has proved unpopular with Florida’s large Jewish and Hispanic populations. Although he will clean up the urban centres of Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati, many working and middle class white voters have indicated that they prefer McCain. For some, Obama’s comments about ‘bitter’ Americans clinging to their guns and religion made him look like an elitist; for others racial prejudice is enough.
If Obama does not win these states, but holds those taken by Kerry, he needs to find an additional 19 electoral college votes. Things bode well in Iowa (seven college votes) and Colorado (nine) where he has an excellent grassroots organization and is polling well. McCain, however, is a good bet in New Hampshire (four) where he won primaries in 2000 and 2008, and may even sneak Michigan (17) where Obama’s rustbelt problems could scupper his titanic project.
All this will become irrelevant if McCain does a bit too much straight talking and gets caught on YouTube making one of his trademark off-message statements. He has already conceded that ‘the issue of economics is not something I’ve understood as well as I should’ and said that 100 years in Iraq ‘would be fine by him’. Obama’s great ability to mobilize, raise money and inspire may also help rewrite the ‘red state-blue state’ map that appears so entrenched. New Mexico (five) and Nevada (five) are both, in terms of polling at least, dead heats although McCain remains popular with the large Hispanic population for his championing of necessary immigration reform. Finally there is Virginia (13) where Obama’s superior organization and exciting state-level elections are eroding McCain’s lead.
All this means that Obama’s choice of VP matters hugely. Ohio Governor, Ted Strickland, had been widely written up but has now ruled himself out. Tim Kaine and Jim Webb, Virginian governor and junior senator respectively, are both in with a shout. And then, of course, there’s Hillary Clinton. She would help with Michigan and Ohio (and possibly even Florida) but may be deemed too troublesome in office, particular given her husband’s maverick display on the campaign trail, to take the risk.
The one dark spectre hanging over this election is a narrow McCain victory with Obama taking the popular vote. Given the excitement that this historic election has generated, especially among the young and African-Americans, the damage caused by this scenario could have untold consequences.