Arriving via the old-fashioned medium of snail-mail, rather than pinging my into-box, I got an invite the other day for Saturday night – always rather flattering at my age. It felt like it came from another era. This was no 80s theme party though. The occasion is a bash to mark the one-year anniversary of the Ealing Southall by-election victory.
It was exactly a year ago when, after a selection process that raised eyebrows, Virendra Sharma won a thumping victory in the that by-election. The same day Tony Blair’s old seat of Sedgefield was comfortably held. Both were taken as early indications of the popularity of the new regime, aka the Brown bounce. The government and PM appeared to have a renewed sense of purpose, or to put it in less syllables a spring in their step. What a difference a year makes.
Two recent by-elections haven’t delivered such great results. Crewe and Nantwich saw the Tories take a former safe Labour seat. Henley embarrassingly put Labour’s vote behind that of the BNP – both were beaten by the Greens.
But then by-elections have never been harbingers of much. A couple of examples come to mind. 1990 saw the mid-Staffordshire by-election, which was meant to pave the way for a Labour victory. The Conservatives convincingly won the ‘92 general election regardless. Shortly after Labour’s high watermark in ‘97, the Lib Dems won the Winchester by-election. Labour crashed and burned, losing its deposit. Uxbridge too around the same time was a disappointing result for us. Two thousand and one was still a record Labour landslide.
In no way were any of these protest-vote-snapshots predictors for what happened nationally. Ditto the Lib Dem by-election bandwagon that rolls from time to time but seems to have stalled of late. Let us hope the same rule of zero ultimate significance applies to Henley and Crewe.
And yet, the by-election that must win the prize for meaninglessness for this parliament or maybe this era is surely still to come. Today the good burghers of David Davis’ seat-with-a-right-mouthful-of-a-name go to the polls. With a ballot paper of 25 or so also-rans it’s being hailed as a ‘colourful contest’. The only competitor from a major party is (for reasons best known to himself) the instigator of the contest, Mr D.
The race for second place among a motley crew of fringe candidates includes the one-time Green David Icke and Ealing vicarage rape victim Jill Saward. If we can read little of national significance into the results of Henley, this assessment applies more so in Davisville. It seems voters in the constituency are being subjected to a process of re-electing a ‘courageous’ (euphemism for bonkers) meglomaniac.
There are better ways of making Davis’ point than a forced referendum with no serious opponents. I actually agree that 42 days detention of pre-charge terror suspects is a step too far but by-elections should only be held for legitimate reasons like someone dying. The unnecessary attention-seeking action Davis has chosen is illegit to my mind.
By-elections under Brown have been like buses. None for ages and then a clutch come along at once. In the wee hours of Friday morning the smart money is on David Davis being comfortably re-elected in a zero-sum-gain. I can’t see how this is a great triumph for freedom myself. If we were to choose a Shakesperian title Much Ado About Nothing sums up the state of affairs perfectly. The circus will roll on.
To Glasgow East. An SNP gain is being talked of already. In 1988 they won Glasgow Govan in a sensational by-election from Labour – whose defeated candidate Bobby Gillsepie shouldn’t be confused with the Primal Scream lead singer. Govan turned out to be in the end, like Mid Staffs, a busted flush.
I would warn that, even if things do not go Labour’s way, to sacrifice Gordon Brown at the altar of a Glasgow by-election would be wrong. Then again it’s not for me to decide and we shouldn’t write off the seat yet. It could be a Birmingham Hodge Hill (Labour hold… just, rectified at the next general election with more normal-sized majority) or an Ealing Southall even (Labour hold share of the vote in a potentially three-way contest). There’s still time to ensure that this is the case. In the meantime, party on I guess.