John Nance Garner, Franklin D Roosevelt’s first vice president, described his position as ‘not worth a warm bucket of piss’. But Garner’s objection to bedpans was more sour grapes than an indictment of the office since he had been a rival for president in 1932 and was frequently overruled by FDR.
Dick Cheney is perhaps the best recent example of the power available in the role and lest we forget that nine of the 46 ‘veeps’ have succeeded to the presidency on account of murder, natural death or resignation. McCain’s age and the tragic possibility of an Obama assassination certainly increase the chances that the next one will become the tenth.
While Europe waits with baited breath for Obama’s visit, there is more excitement stateside for his return. It is rumoured that the presumptive Democratic nominee wants to announce his running mate before the Olympic games kick off on 8 August. The choice for Obama is threefold: does he pick a nominee to help him win a swing state, someone to ‘balance’ his own strengths and weaknesses, or look beyond the electoral cycle and pick the individual that can work best with over the next four and maybe eight years?
The key state in 2004, Ohio, is home to Governor Ted Strickland, a centrist who was an early favourite but has now ruled himself out. Bill Richardson, the Hispanic governor of New Mexico and ambassador to the UN under Clinton, is often mentioned for his ability to woo the Latinos who make up a significant chunk of voters in Colorado, Nevada and his own state, but Obama may feel uncomfortable with two non-whites on the ticket. More likely is Governor Timothy Kaine of Virginia, a state that Bush won by over 8 per cent but where Obama sees potential among the large black population and this week opened 20 campaign offices.
Kaine’s credentials extend beyond geography. He is also a Roman Catholic and a Spanish speaker, which could help Obama with two groups of swing voters hoovered up by Hillary Clinton in the primaries.
And what of HRC? She attracted 18 million voters, some of whom are now openly supporting John McCain. Her candidacy could potentially bring them back into the tent but Obama may well decide that he can win them over anyway and that having her (and Bill) in the Whitehouse would be counterproductive. Some suggest that an older, experienced candidate like Tom Daschle or Sam Nunn, who served a combined total of 42 years in the Senate, is what Obama needs. But this could actually expose his own inexperience and runs counter to his message of change.
Three others in the frame are popular and competent politicians from states that the Democrats stand little chance of winning: Governors Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, Brian Schweitzer of Montana, and Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana. But since picking a woman other than Clinton would be seen as a snub, it’s unlikely that Sebelius will get the nod. Schweitzer is probably too marginal a figure for inclusion, and Bayh suffers from being a beltway insider.
The clear frontrunner for McCain is Mitt Romney. The failed presidential nominee is a picture postcard pol, who made his name in private equity and may inspire confidence as the economy continues to spiral. But voters did not trust his self-reinvention from governor of America’s most liberal state, Massachusets, to standard-bearer for the conservative movement. This flip-flopping was something that McCain liked to point out during the primaries but now he could do with Romney’s fundraising acumen and popularity in Michigan, a state where his father was governor and which McCain may well need to win the presidency.
One advantage for John McCain is that he is likely to go second and can therefore make his choice in light of Obama’s. So if the soon-to-be-47-year-old went for a second dose of youth, McCain could try and counter with his own young upstart. Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana is perhaps the most intriguing choice. He is 37, an Indian American who converted to Catholicism in High School (and came to the UK in the 1990s as a Rhodes Scholar). More importantly, he has impeccably conservative credentials yet also appeals to progressives in his home state.
Senator John Thune of South Dakota is a dashing first term senator who claimed the scalp of Daschle back in 2004, and finally there is governor Sarah Palin of Alaska. The 34-year old has been in office for 18 months and has maintained extraordinary popularity ratings of 80-90 per cent. As a former high school basketball star, model and mother of a child with Down syndrome, Palin has an appealing personal story. She could also reach out to many of Hillary Clinton’s disgruntled supporters.
Predictions are generally even less useful than John Garner’s famed bucket but if I were a betting man, it would be a tenner each on Kaine and Romney. And at 20-1 for next VP, Palin is definitely worth a flutter.
Will Straw