On an almost daily basis, we hear that Britain faces an impending fuel crisis. Energy bills could rise by more than 60 per cent in the next few years; the cost of petrol and gas continues to soar.
But what do we really understand about our use of energy – and who is offering the vision to do something about it?
A recent work of fiction paints a picture that feels uncomfortably close to home: a planet populated by humans is running out of resources and suffering from the severe effects of climate change. Then, a new planet is discovered, perfect for human life. Without spoiling it for those planning to include Jeanette Winterson’s new novel, The Stone Gods, in their summer reading, the key theme of the ensuing story is that humans are prone to repeating their mistakes when faced with seemingly abundant natural resources.
Which makes for sobering reading when set in the context of The Last Oil Shock, David Strahan’s recent analysis of the inevitable, terminal decline of oil.
How many of us are aware of the following statistics: for every barrel of oil we now discover, we consume at least three; at some point, probably in the next decade, global oil production will start to fall, forever (Strachan 2007).
For most of the 20th century, the world discovered more oil than it used, despite increasing demand. However this reversed in the mid 1980s – since then, globally, we have been pumping more oil than we find. How sustainable is this? The short answer seems to be, not very.
While oil consumption in the western world is falling per unit of GDP it is still rising per capita as we all drive more, fly more, and consume oil in ways many of us may not realise (did you know that heart valves, toothbrushes and anti histamines are all made using oil?)
Labour politicians have already had a taster of the implications of declining oil, with the British fuel crisis in September 2000. Protests which held up fuel delivery revealed the extent to which the British economy (and social fabric) was dependent on oil, as shortages impacted on employment, healthcare (including the emergency services), and food supplies.
The key question, it seems, is not whether oil will peak (when consumption outstrips supply), but when. The finite nature of fossil fuels means that a point is approaching at which we have depleted more than half of them, after which it will be increasingly difficult to ensure supply keeps up with demand.
And this is not something for our children’s children to confront. Oil peak could be within 10 years or less (Strachan 2007).
Interestingly, the only politician to date to have set out a radical solution to the terminal decline of oil is David Miliband, although few may remember it. Current headlines are dominated by conjecture over Miliband’s possible plans for the Labour party. But it is his plans for tackling a threat arguably bigger than terrorism and as pressing as global temperature rises which indicate his potential.
Back in 2006, while environment secretary, Miliband floated a scheme for carbon trading. Under the scheme, the carbon ‘budget’ would be shared out between government departments, companies, and individuals. People would be given ‘carbon rations’, while government departments and companies would have to pay for theirs. In practice this would mean that every time you brought petrol, booked a flight or used fossil fuel consuming electricity, a proportion would be deducted from your carbon ration. You could sell any excess or buy more through an ‘eBay’ style electronic system.
In one major shift, climate change and oil depletion would be tackled. It seems radical and undoubtedly throws up huge questions. But the finite nature of the resources we currently depend on make it difficult to refute. Winterson’s The Stone Gods tells a story of humans unable to correct the mistakes of the past. Miliband set out a vision for doing just that – is now the time to act?
Alan Johnson is away