September 26th 1960 was the date of the first ever presidential debate, when an upstart Senator by the name of John F. Kennedy took on Vice President Richard Nixon. In an election where Kennedy won with 0.1% of the popular vote, the debate was critical. Nixon refused make up and looked pale on screen (his mother called him afterwards to ask if he was sick). After the event, Kennedy moved into a lead in the polls from which he never looked back. This Friday, on the forty-eighth anniversary of that first televised encounter, Barack Obama and John McCain will answer questions for 90 minutes from Jim Lehrer, a veteran broadcaster of ten presidential debates.
Around 40% of the population watched the proceedings in 1960. Although it is unlikely that such a large proportion of the country will watch this week’s debate, an estimated audience of 100 million would smash all previous viewing records. Given how tight this election is, it is highly probable that the candidate perceived to have “won” this debate will win the eventual election.
So what do the candidates have to do? For Barack Obama it is all about empathy, the economy, and happy endings. First, he must counter the criticism that he is elitist by connecting with voters at an emotional level. This means that he must avoid overly intellectualized answers, the steely gaze into the distance that has become his trademark, and moments of disrespect such as when he said that Hillary Clinton was “likeable enough.” Instead, he should use imagery and humour to get his point across as he did to such effect at the Convention when one of his best lines was, “McCain likes to say he’ll follow bin Laden to the gates of hell—but he won’t even follow him to the cave where he lives.”
Second, despite the fact that the debate is about foreign policy, he needs to frame his answers using the economy as a backdrop. Over the past week, he has reopened a commanding lead over McCain on issue #1. He should use the debate as an opportunity to talk about the $10 billion a month cost of the Iraq War, Americans’ reliance on Chinese cash to buy Saudi oil, and McCain’s lack of trustworthiness since he thinks the fundamentals of the economy are sound.
Third, he has to reassure voters that electing him will work out OK and that he can be trusted to run the country despite his youth. Incidentally, at 47, Obama is the same age as Richard Nixon was in 1960; JFK was four years younger.
For John McCain, having the international debate first is a huge boon since he holds a ten point plus lead in the polls on terrorism, Iraq, Russia, and foreign policy in general. He will be keen to stress the success of the surge, which he favoured and Obama opposed, as evidence of his superior judgment (although Obama will presumably remind viewers that the surge would have been unnecessary if the war had not been fought in the first place). Finally, he must avoid one of his characteristic explosions. If he loses his temper, then all the make up in Milan won’t save him.