British followers of American politics have become familiar with falling asleep on election night without knowing the result. Last time out confusion in Ohio as absentee and provisional ballots were counted meant that Kerry did not concede until lunchtime the following day. In 2000, while Brits went to sleep thinking that Gore had won, they awoke to hear that Bush instead had taken Florida, a result that was upheld by the Supreme Court a month later. This time around, let’s hope it is not such a white-knuckle ride although viewers should still expect a decent stretch ahead of them.
The first exit polls will accompany polling stations closing across the east coast at midnight GMT although the contests may be too close for predictions to start flying about. Pollsters had their fingers burned in both previous general elections and in the early primary state of New Hampshire where they wrongly predicted a victory for Obama. Their job is compounded by over 10 million absentee ballots already (up dramatically on previous years). It appears that these votes have been cast primarily for the Democrats which could mean that Republicans are over-represented in the final election night analysis. Either way the TV networks will have to be absolutely certain before declaring one way or another.
The first indication of a landslide, therefore, would probably be an early indication that Obama had won both Florida and Virginia. But don’t take too much for granted if only Virginia goes Obama’s way until the exit polls have come through from Ohio at 12.30am and Pennsylvania at 1am. John McCain is betting the house on these states so if they both fall into the Obama column he may as well concede. But if they both go for the GOP, it may be time to get that Colombian roast brewing.
Even if these early eastern states are so close that pollsters are keeping schtum, we should start by this time to have a clearer picture of swings among certain demographics. If white Catholics, working-class voters and men are voting primarily for Obama it will be safe to say that he has won the election. If McCain is ahead among women or Hispanics, then he may be edging the race.
The final indications should start to come through around 2am when the polls shut in the southwest mountain states of Colorado and New Mexico. These are a key part of Obama’s strategy and alongside Virginia, Iowa and Nevada (where polls close at 3am GMT) they could help him win the White House despite a potential loss in Pennsylvania.
If you are a real geek and looking out for that filibuster proof Senate majority of 60, I’m afraid you may as well forget about sleeping since the outcome of Ted Stevens’ defence of Alaska following his guilty verdict on seven counts of corruption will not arrive until 6am. But if you stay up that late for what could be the ultimate Portillo moment in Sarah Palin’s backyard, you might prefer the pub to work anyway.
Will Straw is the co-author, along with Nick Anstead, of Yes We Can: How Lessons from America Should Change British Politics, published today by the Fabian Society