There is no equivalent in British politics to the American inaugural address. New prime ministers returning from Buckingham Palace after a general election or internal party leadership contest have barely had a couple of hours to prepare some remarks to the gathered media in Downing Street. By the time he looks east over an estimated crowd of four million stretched out along the historic National Mall, Barack Obama will have had 77 days since winning the election to think about what he will say.
The inauguration is the scene of some of the most famous of all political quotations:
‘So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself–nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.’ (FDR, 1933)
‘Let us never negotiate out of fear. But let us never fear to negotiate … And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you–ask what you can do for your country.’ (JFK, 1961)
‘In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem.’ (Reagan, 1981)
Given such heritage it is lucky that Obama is no stranger to rhetoric. We should certainly expect his speech to include more of the rich imagery that punctuated his victory speeches in Iowa and South Carolina before he was criticised repeatedly by his then challenger (and now nominee for secretary of state) for being all style and no substance.
Inauguration addresses are usually reserved for singular themes rather than a shopping list of policies. FDR addressed the need for jobs, Kennedy the Cold War, Johnson the Great Society. With the economy in the doldrums and the inauguration taking place a day after the Martin Luther King public holiday expect Obama’s theme to be the role of public service in putting the country onto a better path.
And given its universal quality, service is also a good hook with which to return to his favourite theme, first used at the Democratic Convention in 2004. If it has any remaining value, you would be well placed betting your house on hearing the phrase: ‘We have never been a collection of Red States and Blue States: we are, and always will be, the United States of America.’
Obama has received criticism from some bloggers and liberals for the inclusion of a Republican, Bob Gates as defense secretary, and a number of former Clintonites (including Hillary) in his cabinet. Even though this is more a product of the divisive state of American politics than a genuine critique of Obama’s intentions, he will need to reassure his supporters. Expect therefore a return to the themes of ‘hope’ and ‘change’ that set him on the road to victory and an explanation of what that actually means.
But important though his talk will be in framing the themes and goals of his administration, it is cheap in comparison to the inbox awaiting him once the presidential motorcade has driven up Pennsylvania Avenue and he is sat in the Oval Office for the first time. No new president has ever had to combine economic recovery with two wars. By 20 January, the expectation across the US will be palpable. Perhaps, Obama will reflect, a quickie with the queen and then on with the job would be better after all.