Electoral politics in the UK is currently volatile and will remain so while the global credit crisis continues. We have gone from cries of Cameron finished and an increased Labour majority to clandestine Labour leadership challenges and 1997 style Conservative landslides. We have also gone from Mandelson back and destroying Osborne to Ken Clarke back to destroy everyone and everything.
I want to concentrate on what happens if there is a general election by May 2010 and there is a hung parliament. What are the options?
Option 1: Labour minority administration
Labour is returned with a lack of overall majority. Talks of coalition are swept aside. The Labour party begins to in-fight. Gordon Brown steps down after 18 months. Four cabinet ministers put their names forward. There are many calls internally to go to the left and rebuild the voter base in the heartlands.
The government is strained and under constant attack. Labour constantly relies on DUP members to pass legislation.
Option 2: Lab Lib coalition
Not unlikely. Rumour has it that Labour could support Ming Campbell for speaker as a precursor for smoothing relations between the distant cousin parties.
As Iain Dale likes to remind us, Nick Clegg and co. are different political animals to their predecessors, they are hungry for power. But at what cost?
If Labour is returned with a lack of overall majority the coalition talks that occurred circa 1997 may be resumed with Paddy Ashdown playing a significant role in the negotiations. This leads to him being rewarded with a defence ministerial position for himself. Either Nick Clegg would get home secretary to prove the Lib Dems are not weak on crime or popular Vince Cable will become Chancellor. Both will not occupy these positions at once as that would mean too many Lib Dems in the top three or four jobs. A Granita style plan would be formed between the two whereby age and ambition would be weighed up.
The coalition would create a cordon sanitaire to isolate and reject the Conservatives. Lib Dems in the north would support this. Those in the south would need more convincing. Individuals like David Laws would defect to the Conservative party.
Such a plan would ultimately finish the missed opportunity of 1997 and would destroy the Liberal Democrats forever. Though they would continue like the SDP in Bridlington, the majority would become two uneven blow-in entities to the two main parties. Labour would take most of their twenty one parliamentary members, while the Conservatives pick up a handful. One or two will become independents.
There will be a lot of concern amongst local councils where Lib Dems and Labour have a long history of not getting on.
Option 3: Conservative minority administration
Cameron is bolstered but not enough. Norman Tebbit claims it is a travesty and blames progressive conservatism for not delivering a working majority. Greg Clarke sees the election win as a vindication of progressive conservatism. Confusion begins to set in for the media and the parties for how the minority administration will work. Gordon Brown steps down as leader. There are calls for Nick Clegg to go as the Lib Dems see most of the parliamentary party wiped out in the south.
There are no talks of coalition. Cameron runs the government for six months as a minority administration being supported by the SNP. Fox hunting repeal legislation is proposed to the House.
As Cameron enjoys his honeymoon period he takes a decision to go to the country to gain an overall majority. This will be the first time since 1974 that there have been two general elections in the same year.
Option 4: Con Lib coalition
The “progressive conservatism” slogan is swept aside for “liberal conservatism”. Nick Clegg is offered Home Secretary in return for coalition. David Laws is offered another high profile job. The fifteen Lib Dem parliamentary members are so dejected they agree with the coalition. Charles Kennedy goes independent.
A minority of the fifteen defect to the Labour party, meaning that although the coalition will generate a working majority it is only of one. John Bercow attempts to use this to his own advantage. Cameron has to go the SNP for a vote bail-out every now and again.
The Labour party elect a new leader and the rebuilding work continues. As with the Lab Lib coalition, the Lib Dems are effectively destroyed despite examples in Europe where this has worked nicely without total destruction of the minor partner.
Options 5: Labour overall majority
All is well.
Option 6: Conservative overall majority
Horrible. Cameron espouses equality of opportunity in New Labour fashion while actually creating the Thatcherite nightmare that terrorised the working class during the 1980s. City boys are laughing while the unemployed are forgotten about.
A new generation of Labour politicians have to negotiate the infighting that is generated within the Labour party to generate a rebirth.