When you talk to Iranian diplomats about why their country feels they might need nuclear weapons, they often mention a sense of strategic encirclement. You would think they were referring to the presence of US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, or the governments in Israel or Saudi Arabia. But ask Iranians what they fear most, and the answer is somewhat surprising – a nuclear armed Pakistan which could self-implode. It’s just one example of why Pakistan’s future is of such geo-strategic importance.
Even before the horrific attack on the Sri Lankan cricketers or the mass protests by the opposition, Pakistan has been teetering on the brink.
60 years after independence, much hope was placed on the rainbow coalition of the PPP (Pakistan People’s Party) and the P-ML (Pakistan Muslim League) who managed to oust Musharraf. However, in the last year, much of that hope has evaporated. Even before the crisis which led to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s resignation, sources in the Pakistan government had expressed scepticism that the coalition would last long.
Whatever your view of the merits of targeting Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters, the fact that the US says publicly that it will attack targets inside Pakistan speaks volumes about the lack of control that the government in Islamabad has over the country as a whole.
The central government has struggled to control the lawless areas of Pakistan such as the North West Frontier Province, Balochistan or the Tribal Areas – but the real danger now is that democrats are divided and this results in the kind of sectarian violence that Iraq has suffered from over the last five years. The Pakistani Taliban have not just been attacking government or Western targets but have been deliberately targeting Shi’as in what looks like an attempt to provoke widespread civil unrest.
The danger is one of distraction. If the current government is unable to resolve the current political turmoil its focus may not be on the challenge that matters most – tackling the Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters who roam across the border with Afghanistan, attacking British troops in Helmand and civilians in Pakistan.
As I write this, some progress is being made. President Zardari has apparently agreed, no doubt under pressure from the US and the UK, to reinstate the sacked Chief Justice, Iftikhar Chaudhury.
Zardari would be well advised to give some other concessions to the opposition – releasing jailed lawyers and opposition leaders, restoring the opposition government in Punjab, giving greater freedom to the media and allowing protests to happen – as long as they are well managed and peaceful. The opposition also have a responsibility to the nation – to ensure that violence and instability does not occur as a result of their inflammatory rhetoric.
Politicians on all sides should remember that the real enemy of Pakistan is not one party leader or another but those extremists who would love to see Pakistan’s democratic experiment fail. Those who would like to see Pakistan ruled by feudal warlords and become a safe haven for international terrorists must not be allowed to succeed.
They can only be defeated by greater unity from Pakistan’s leaders, and by disproving those who doubt Pakistan can be a democracy. It also requires renewed support and courage from the West – principally the US and EU.
Those who think that the generals are the only safeguard of democracy should remember the election results of last year. Over 90 per cent of the public voted for moderate parties – not for Islamists. The extremists may be a violent and dangerous coalition but they are fundamentally in the minority. And they can be defeated, but only with increased support from the international community. Yes the extremists will need to be tackled militarily. But the fundamental answer to the extremists is not the barrel of a gun, but the will of the people.
New tactics will be required to tackle the terrorist threat. As the International Crisis Group says in its latest report, there is an opportunity to “reshape Pakistan’s response to terrorism, which should rely not on the application of indiscriminate force…but on police investigations, arrests, fair trials and convictions. This must be civilian led to be effective.” Rather than simply signing a cheque for the army or the ISI, western leaders should provide technical as well as financial support to civilian law enforcement agencies.
Only a substantial political accommodation, backed explicitly by Western leaders, can prevent non-democratic forces filling the vacuum which could emerge from the current stalemate.
When it comes to Pakistan, civilian government is the best answer to the terrorists. And we simply cannot allow it to fail.