There has been much cynical comment written in the international media in the run up to the general election in South Africa this week, and the anticipated victory of the ANC leader, Jacob Zuma. Some of it is fair, but we should still celebrate the great achievement that South Africa has made in the last two decades.
That millions of South Africans will queue up to vote on Wednesday in the fourth democratic elections since the end of apartheid is a great testament to the courage of ordinary South Africans, and the vision of their political leaders. That power has been peacefully and democratically transferred between four presidents is remarkable – especially in comparison to other countries in the continent and some of its neighbours.
So let’s celebrate that achievement, but be wary of assuming that democracy is embedded for good in South Africa.
Comparisons with Zimbabwe might be overblown – but many of the issues that tore that country apart are beginning to surface in its southern neighbour.
Last weekend, an unruly mob overran a fruit and sugar cane farm, apparently frustrated at the slow pace of promised land reform. Both Zimbabwe and South Africa have suffered from a massive imbalance in ownership – with some 80 to 90 per cent of land in white farmer’s hands. While South Africa has taken a more cautious approach to the issue, to date a more populist president in Jacob Zuma, coupled with current economic pressures could result in more decisive action.
The heart of the problem here is the lasting inequalities between black and white in the country which could take generations to overcome. It will take great political courage from the new president to tackle the issue while still promote unity and reconciliation in the country.
The second, and related challenge is corruption. Power in South Africa, rather than being dispersed amongst the people, has tended to be concentrated in a powerful elite with close links to the ANC leadership. Their modus operandi has too often been a process of personal enrichment, rather than public service. Convicted criminals and notorious fraudsters have been allowed to be placed on party election lists. Mr Zuma’s own trial for corruption was suspended on his becoming the leader of the ANC.
In some ways, Zuma is the antithesis of the traditionally Christian elite that controlled the ANC, of which Mbeki was an archetypal example. His big-man Zulu heritage is causing some disquiet. According to the Times this is reflected in his views: “He says children should be reared to fear God and respect their elders. He is an advocate of polygamy, but there is confusion about the number of his wives. He is believed to have 22 children by six women. He says there is too much sex and nudity on television. He says criminals are ‘hiding behind’ South Africa’s human rights constitution and should be ‘made to talk to the police’.”
The worry is that rather than devolving power, a westernised elite will merely be replaced by a Leftist Zulu elite. Zuma apparently told the ANC national executive that the only people he will consult are the trade unions and the Communist party.
That is a worrying claim. The ANC needs to do more to reach out beyond its heartlands, and engage with some of the other parties and civil society groups in South Africa. If democracy is to bed down in South Africa, then a multiplicity of parties who can credibly win power must emerge.
One party that is as yet untested is COPE (Congress of the People) a party formed by disgruntled ANC activists aligned to the Mbeki wing of the party. It leaders are drawn from the same middle class group and have intertwined their Christian beliefs with a moral purpose to weed out corruption and tackle poverty. The formation of the party has led to bitter recriminations with the ANC who have delivered veiled threats to the former comrades.
The largest opposition party is the centre-left Democratic Alliance, led by Helen Zille and founded by anti-apartheid campaigners like Helen Suzman. Although their website is a laughable carbon copy of Obama’s, the party – which is in fact a coalition – is beginning to build support. They are expected to win well in Western Cape, building on a campaign to tackle crime and the corruption – issues they feel the ANC has failed to tackle effectively. They are also increasing their support in urban areas, with a focus on equal opportunities for all.
The danger is that the contest will be portrayed as a battle between the white middle classes led by Zille, and the poor black majority under Zuma.
This would be a massive simplification, but in a country still bedevilled by racial tensions it could gain traction. The shocking images of an immigrant being burnt alive in a township in North-Eastern Johannesburg gravely illustrated how such tensions could spiral out of control. Although both the Mbeki and Zuma wings of the ANC strongly condemned the violent pogroms in 2008, it was disturbing to see how many of the instigators came from ANC youth groups, and sung ANC rallying songs during the riots.
While there is an emerging black middle class – known colloquially as ‘black diamonds’ – inequality is still usually a case of black versus white. The worry is that this new middle class will become insular, –educating its children at private schools and living in predominantly white suburbs. The heart of this problem – and the corresponding levels of violent crime – is educational failures. According to a study by the South African Institute of Race Relations, only 20 per cent of students going through the secondary school system attain the marks needed to go to university; and many of those who do get to university end up dropping out. A far greater focus on skills, especially technological skills, is needed to address these failings.
One of the relative success stories is the battle against HIV/AIDS. Although there is still an epidemic, some progress has been made, partly thanks to a new minister for health, Barbara Hogan. A new budget to tackle the disease, with a commitment to pay for antiretroviral drugs, is beginning to give hope to the 5.6 million victims.
So South Africa is making progress, but we must hope the last two decades are not a fleeting period of optimism.
It was always going to be, as Mandela put it – “a long walk to freedom”, but here’s hoping that the new president’s term in office will keep South Africa on the right track.