India is voting. And with elections lasting a full month, it feels like the kaleidoscope has been shaken, but the pieces are refusing to settle. The questions of who will form the next government, and where they will take the country will hang in the air for several weeks yet.
What is clear, however, are the issues the next government must address. Polls identify two issues – ‘security’ and ‘the economy’ – as critically important to voters. Interpreting quite what the voters want, however, is not a simple task. Both ‘security’ and ‘the economy’ are labels that encompass a whole set of different concerns. The key for the next government is to identify the different issues that fall under those headings, and devise thoughtful, nuanced responses.
Taking ‘security’ first, dialogues around security often seem to collapse into discussions about Pakistan, and the electoral period has been no different. Pakistan, and especially Pakistani-linked terrorism has dominated security policy debates, as well as discussions of ensuring the safe conduct of the elections themselves. Much of this focus is warranted, as India’s relationship with Pakistan, and the linked issue of Kashmir is key to the future of the region, and will be a vital issue for the next government to tackle.
Security concerns cannot however, be equated with Pakistan. Indeed, the first few weeks of polling have demonstrated the importance of addressing other threats. The most obvious of these is that posed by the ‘Naxalites’ – a Maoist movement whose goal is to overthrow the government, and whose attacks on the elections have left 18 dead. Naxalites are now thought to be present across approximately 40 per cent of India, and almost 700 people were killed in Naxal-related violence in 2008. Security policy must therefore also address such sub-national conflicts if it is to meet the concerns of all citizens.
In addition, it is also vital that the government address security threats that are not about armed conflict. Gender security in particular has been highlighted by some as a key concern. There is much alarm at a recent upsurge in attacks on women, who have been physically assaulted by ‘traditionalists’ for visiting bars, for example, and for being seen in public with men of a different religious background.
This more nuanced approach to interpreting voters’ wishes is also required in the next government’s economic policies. In this time of global downturn, there is a tendency to think that global preoccupations with economic growth rates, stock market values and unemployment will also be India’s main concerns. And there is no denying that these are major issues, especially to the urban middle class who are most directly linked into global systems.
But this is not the sum of economic concerns. Whilst addressing the global economic context will undoubtedly help most Indians economically, indirectly if not directly, for many the major challenge remains unchanged – poverty reduction. Again, the specific concerns of citizens depend on the barriers keeping them from participating in India’s economic success. This will mean different things for different people, though prominent among the solutions must be infrastructure development – such as building roads to rural villages so people can take their goods to market – and improving schooling.
So which party will be charged with tackling these issues, and what will their approach be? This is looking harder and harder to predict, as whilst a coalition is almost certain, it is difficult to say who will be leading it. Both India’s major parties are struggling as the smaller regional, caste, religious and language–based parties are increasingly asserting themselves, with many refusing to ally with either of the main parties in advance of the elections. Instead they are talking up the possibility of a ‘third front’ government, formed of a coalition between themselves.
How effective would such an outcome be in addressing the voters’ wishes? A third front government could be seen as a positive. After all, these smaller and more local parties could channel local views to the heart of government, avoiding the temptation to oversimplify citizens’ concerns. The danger is, however, that such a fractured government would be unable to provide the thoughtful, strong and coherent responses that tackling these diverse issues will require. Ideally the kaleidoscope will settle into a pattern where nuanced insights into India’s challenges are combined with the ideas and strength needed to tackle them.