So the pundits and the pollsters got it wrong.
They predicted the tightest result in the general election for years, with less than a hair’s breadth between the two main parties, the Congress and the BJP. That would have given the so-called ‘Third Front’ – a mixture of leftist and regional parties – a decisive role in forming a ruling coalition.
That would have been a fragile coalition, reliant on smaller parties, possibly including the Communists which could have created instability in the world’s most populous democracy.
But it was not to be – India’s 700 million strong electorate has voted for moderation over extremism, at a time of such conflict within her neighbours Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
This was against the prevailing trend of previous plebiscites. There had tended to be a trend toward caste-based and regional parties. There was also an anti-incumbency factor. But Manmohan Singh defied his critics, by becoming the first ever prime minister to get re-elected after completing a full five year term since 1961.
This unpredicted result is perhaps a reflection of the unexpected nature of India’s democracy. Political participation goes against conventional wisdom. According to Professor Ashutosh Varshney, “the lower castes vote more than the upper castes, and the poor vote as much or more often than the rich. Similarly, the illiterate cast ballots more often than the educated, and rural voters more than urban populations.” Unlike in most Western democracies, India’s universal suffrage long preceded the transition to a modern industrialised economy. This is an interesting lesson for our own levels of political disenfranchisement, and for those who believe in the possibilities of democracy-building in other states.
With such high levels of poverty, getting the economic fundamentals right is key to winning the electoral battleground, and the rural poor have often been suspicious of economic reforms.
But as well as defying conventional politics – India seems to be defying economic gravity – at least for now. Following the Congress’s surprise victory, the Indian stock market surged. The benchmark Sensex index jumped 17 per cent, forcing the Bombay Stock Exchange to shut down for the day.
Despite the deadening hand of his hard-left partners, Manmohan Singh has managed to deliver impressive levels of economic growth – nine per cent in 2008, even during a time of global recession. This was partly thanks to an agricultural boom, based on successive good monsoon seasons. The Communist parties, who had blocked reforms in insurance, pension funds and the selling off of state-owned companies have now been defeated. Freed from their stranglehold, the prime minister will face even greater pressure to move toward a deeper and longer lasting restructuring of the economy. And despite India’s recent success, we shouldn’t underestimate the challenge facing him. India’s fiscal debt has shot up to 10 per cent of GDP and the government may face a sustained shortfall in the budget for social spending on the poor and be unable to adopt the kind of populist welfare programmes as it had done before. These projects, like the $5bn rural work scheme and a waiver of loans for indebted farmers helped to secure victory for the Congress.
The other deciding factor is Manmohan the man. As one of my colleagues at APCO, Amith Prabhu put it, “who else to give India what it deserves than a straight forward, non communal, non corrupt, good old doctor?”
The third factor was the election strategy spearheaded by Rahul Gandhi, the rising star of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. He combines youthful dynamism with astute political nous, learnt at the knees of his mother, Sonia Gandhi, into a winning combination. He took charge of the campaign, and is credited with the success of the party in Uttar Pradesh, increasing their seats in the Lok Sabha from nine to over twenty. Despite the fact that he is predicted to play a relatively minor role in the government, he has already been singled out as a future prime minister.
The new government will have new faces, and be in contrast to the fading appeal of the octogenarian leader of the BJP, LK Advani. As well as Rahul, these may include Shashi Tharoor, Sachin Pilot and SM Krishna, giving the new administration a mix of charisma and experience.
Just like successful modernising politicians like Tony Blair, Manmohan Singh has managed to create a coalition of India’s burgeoning middle class and rural poor to win a second term in office. That is a lesson for other leaders on how to defeat the challenges of extremism.